气候变化对滇中高原作物种植结构的影响及应对策略

Effects and the Countermeasures of Climate Change on Crop Planting Structure in Central Yunnan Plateau

【目的】探明气候变化对滇中高原作物种植结构的影响,为该区农业可持续发展提供依据。【方法】采用典型相关分析方法,选取滇中高原核心地区(昆明、玉溪和楚雄)为研究区,分析其主要气候因子及作物种植结构的变化特征,并探讨气候变化与作物种植结构变化之间的相关关系。【结果】1990-2019年,研究区及3市州的气候变化有显著的暖干化趋势,且变化趋势近似。其中,研究区的年均温呈极显著上升趋势,而年降水量和Kira干湿度指数则呈显著下降趋势,3个气象要素的变化幅度分别为0.44℃/10a、-4.98 mm/10a和-0.46/10a;昆明、玉溪及楚雄的3个气象要素的变化幅度分别为0.46℃/10a、3.852 mm/10a和0.41/10a,0.42℃/10a、3.796 mm/10a和0.36/10a,0.44℃/10a、7.029 mm/10a和0.61/10a。研究区的作物种植结构呈显著旱化趋势:灌溉需水量相对较小的玉米、薯类、蔬菜及其他经济作物的播种面积比重大幅上升,分别增长2.75百分点/10a、0.85百分点/10a、8.10百分点/10a和1.64百分点/10a;而灌溉需水量相对较大的水稻和小麦的播种面积比重快速下降,分别下降5.97百分点/10a和5.32百分点/10a。气候因子与耕地作物种植结构因子两组变量之间呈极显著的典型相关(置信水平为99%),3市州典型变量的典型相关系数分别为0.887、0.915和0.919。【结论】研究区气候的暖干化趋势导致当地需水量大的作物播种面积减少和种植结构呈旱化趋势;提出提高作物种植结构的“旱化”程度,增加经济效益高且需水量较小的作物比重,提升工程蓄水和环境蓄水能力,采用节水灌溉技术和发展设施农业,提高农业用水的利用效率等适应气候暖干化的主要措施。

【Objective】The effect of climate change on the crop planting structure in Central Yunnan Plateau is explored,so as to provide basis for agricultural sustainable development of studied areas.【Method】With canonical correlation method,taking the core ares of Central Yunnan Plateau(Kunming,Yuxi and Chuxiong)as the studied areas,the main climate factors and variation characteristics of crop planting structure are analyzed,and the correlation between climate change and the change of crop planting structure is discussed.【Result】The climate change had a significant warming and drying trend from 1990 to 2019,and the climate change trends of the three areas in were similar.The mean annual temperature increased significantly,while the annual precipitation and Kira dry-humidity index decreased significantly,with the variation ranges of 0.44℃/10a,-4.98 mm/10a and-0.46/10a,respectively.The variation ranges of three climate factors in Kunming,Yuxi and Chuxiong were 0.46℃/10a,3.852 mm/10a and 0.41/10a,0.42℃/10a,3.796 mm/10a and 0.36/10a,0.44℃/10a,7.029 mm/10a and 0.61/10a,respectively.The crop planting structure showed a significant trend of drought.The proportion of sowing area of corn,potato,vegetables and other economic crops with relatively small irrigation water requirement increased significantly,which individually increased 2.75 percentage points/10a,0.85 percentage points/10a,8.10 percentage points/10a and 1.64 percentage points/10a,while that of rice and wheat with relatively large irrigation water requirement decreased rapidly,which decreased 5.97 percentage points/10a and 5.32 percentage points/10a,respectively.There was a significant canonical correlation(99% confidence level)between climate factors and crop planting structure factors,and the canonical correlation coefficients of the three area were respectively 0.887,0.915 and 0.919.【Conclusion】The warming and drying trend of studied causes the reduction of sowing area of crops with large water requirement and the“drought”trend of crop planting structure.The main measures for adapting the warming and drying climate trend in studied areas are put forward,which are further rising the level of“drought”trend of crop planting structure,increasing the proportion of crops with high economic benefits and low water demand,improving engineering and environmental storage capacity,adopting water-saving irrigation technology and developing agriculture facility,and improving the utilization efficiency of agricultural water.