1958—2019年云南省拐卖未成年人犯罪的时空格局及影响因素

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Minor Trafficking in Yunnan Province from 1958 to 2019

拐卖犯罪的时间跨度长、社会危害性高,会对受害者造成一生的记忆创伤。未成年人作为弱势群体,极易受到拐卖犯罪的侵害。早前拐卖的相关研究主要集中在法学和社会学领域,基于地理学视角的研究起步较晚,且缺少针对犯罪高发区云南省的研究。为此,文章基于公益平台“宝贝回家”网站的数据资料,运用数理统计、空间分析等方法,从未成年受害群体视角探究云南省拐卖犯罪的时空格局及影响因素。研究发现:1)来自乡村的被拐未成年人占总体的77%,从乡村拐入乡村的拐卖数量最多;同时,被拐未成年人整体趋于低龄化,呈现较强的低龄男童偏好以及大龄女童偏好。2)1958—2019年云南省拐卖未成年人数量在时间上呈现“倒V型”波动特征,高发期为1994—2005年,其时间演变受特殊历史事件、国家政策和打拐活动等的影响。3)空间上,云南省东部犯罪总量较高,扩散速率较快,其中曲靖、昆明、昭通为热点区域;县域尺度上,官渡区、昭阳区、盘龙区、西山区、五华区、镇雄县、宣威市的被拐未成年人数量占总数的49.5%;同时,过半案件发生在居住场所附近,封闭式公共场所附近案件发生量最少。4)影响因素上,自然因子对拐卖犯罪的影响力度最小,人口因子对犯罪快速增长期影响显著,社会和经济因子对犯罪高发期和低发期的作用显著。

The crime of trafficking crime has a long period and high social harm,which can easily cause life-long memory trauma to the victims,which has aroused the attention of all walks of life.As a vulnerable group,minors are vulnerable to the crime of trafficking crime.Earlier related studies were mainly concentrated in the fields of law and sociology.The research on the analysis of minor trafficking crimes from a geographical perspective started late,and there was a lack of research on Yunnan Province,a high-incidence area of minor trafficking crimes.Therefore,based on the data of the public welfare platform"Baby Coming Home"website,this paper uses mathematical statistics,spatial analysis,and other methods to explore the spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of minor trafficking crimes in Yunnan Province from the perspective of minor victims.This study found that:1)The inter-annual change of the crimes of trafficking minor in Yunnan province shows a strong concentration and fluctuation.The rise and fall of the number of crimes is closely related to the household registration reform system,the family planning policy,and the efforts to crack down on the crime of trafficking;In terms of age and gender,most of the trafficked minors came from rural areas,which tended to be younger;in terms of gender,there was a strong preference for younger males and older females.2)From 1958 to 2019,the number of minor trafficking in Yunnan Province showed an"inverted V-shaped"fluctuation in time,and the high incidence period was from 1994 to 2005.3)On the urban scale,the crime of trafficking gradually decreasing from the east to the west of Yunnan province.While trafficking was prevalent throughout the province,Qujing,Kunming,and Zhaotong had high incidence rates.On the county scale,it spreads from the Guandu district of Kunming city to the surrounding areas,the diffusion rate in the east is fast and the total number of crimes is high.4)In terms of influencing factors,natural factors have the least impact on child abduction crimes,and there is no significant change in different time periods.Population factors are affected by regional culture,fertility preferences,and marriage and family systems,and become the dominant factor in the rapid growth period of child trafficking crimes.Social and economic factors have a significant effect on the high and low crime periods.