船舶失控漂移撞桥的数值分析和概率预报

Numerical analysis and probabilistic forecasting of ship's uncontrolled drift and crashes into bridge

目前主要研究的是桥梁修建后对通航条件,水流条件的影响。对于船舶失控漂移后的路径以及危险区域研究较少。为给桥区船舶安全通航提供保障,以及为船舶失控漂移后的应急救助作参考,本研究依靠某拟建桥区实验,从船舶失控漂移的运动和轨迹进行讨论,建立起了相关的数值模型分析,得出船舶失控漂移后的相关数据和危险区域,分析出了船舶失控后的撞桥概率。

At present,the main research is on the infuence of bridge construction on the navigational conditions and water flow conditions.There is less research on the path and danger area after the ship drifts out of control.In order to provide guarantee for the safe navigation of ships in the bridge area,as well as to provide reference for the emergency rescue after ship out-of-control drift,this study relies on a proposed bridge area experiment,discusses from the movement and trajectory of ship out of control drift,establishes the relevant numerical model analysis,derives the relevant data and danger area after ship out-of-control drift,and analyzes the probability of hiting the bridge after ship out-of-control drift.