家庭碳排放及其影响因素研究——基于家庭生命周期视角的实证分析

Research on Household Carbon Emissions and Its Influencing Factors——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Perspective of the Family Life Cycle

伴随着全球减排行动的不断深入,中国明确提出了“碳达峰”与“碳中和”目标,国内的碳排放问题引起广泛关注。家庭碳排放成为新的碳排放增长点,有必要全方位探析家庭碳排放新趋势背后的驱动力量。文章利用2018年中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据,从家庭层面实证分析我国家庭碳排放的影响因素,引入家庭生命周期理论作为家庭异质性的依据,考察各影响因素在不同家庭生命周期的作用方向与影响程度。此外,依据家庭碳排放的划分进行渠道检验。研究结果表明家庭经济特征、家庭人口学特征与家庭户籍地域特征具有异质性影响,家庭规模与家庭年龄分别成为影响家庭碳排放最强劲的促进因素与抑制因素。在不同的家庭生命周期,各影响因素的作用差别较大,分别形成家庭构建期的“均衡型”家庭碳排放、成长期的“经济导向型”家庭碳排放及衰退期的“人口导向型”家庭碳排放,呈现出具有家庭生命周期性的碳排放足迹。同时,借助于渠道检验辨别家庭碳排放影响因素及各生命周期家庭碳排放的直接或间接渠道。因此,节能减排政策应不断适应我国人口与发展新形势,将降低家庭间接碳排放作为工作重点,提升家庭在节能减排中发挥作用的空间,针对不同类型家庭施以差异化的减排政策,构建“环境友好型”家庭。

With the continuous deepening of global action on reducing carbon emissions,China has clearly put forward the goals of “carbon emission peaking” and “carbon neutrality”,the domestic carbon emission question has attracted wide public concern. Among them,household carbon emissions have become a new growth point which is of necessary to comprehensively analyze the driving force of household carbon emissions’ new trend. This paper uses the micro data of the China Family Panel Studies in 2018 to empirically analyze the influencing factors of Chinese household carbon emissions on the household level,and introduces the theory of family life cycle as the basis for family heterogeneity to explore the direction and degree of each influencing factor in different family life cycles. In addition,this paper does the channel test according to the division of household carbon emissions. The research results show that family economic characteristics,family demographic characteristics and family household registration geographical characteristics have heterogeneous effects,the family size and family age are the most impetus and restrain factors respectively.And in different family life cycles,the roles of each influencing factor are quite different,showing as “equilibrium” carbon emissions in family formation period,“economic oriented” carbon emissions in family expansion period and “population oriented” carbon emission in family shrinkage period,which creates a carbon emission footprint in family life cycle. At the same time,the channel test helps us distinguish the direct or indirect channels of the influencing factors on household carbon emissions and household carbon emissions in different life cycles. Therefore,the energy conservation and emission reduction policies should constantly adapt to the population and development new situation in our country,making the household indirect carbon emissions reduction be the working focus,paying attention to the role of households in energy conservation and emission reduction,and implementing differentiated measures for different types of households to construct “environmentally friendly” households.