组团城市内私家车车主出行方式选择决策

Traffic safety analysis and optimization model of reverse variable lane

为研究私家车车主在组团城市大背景下对于组团内部自身出行方式的选择决策,分析出行过程中出行时间和出行费用这2个重要参考点,运用累计前景理论,构造了基于累计前景理论的私家车车主出行方式选择决策模型,规范化处理了出行时间和出行费用的累计前景值,通过实例分析综合前景值的变化规律。研究表明:出行时间对于私家车车主的影响高于出行费用,在30 min以内的中距离出行中,轻轨更符合私家车车主的出行心理预期,这也符合组团城市的出行规律。所提出的方法为预测组团城市私家车车主的出行选择提供了新思路。

In the context of cluster city, in order to study the choice of private car owners for the internal travel mode, the two most important reference points of travel time and travel cost are analyzed, and the cumulative prospect theory is used to construct a decision-making model for the choice of travel mode for private car owners based on the cumulative prospect theory, which standardizes the cumulative prospect value of travel time and travel costs, and analyzes the changing law of prospect values through examples. According to research: travel time affects private car owners more than travel costs. In a trip within 30 minutes, the light rail is more in line with the psychological expectations of private car owners and also in line with the travel rules of cluster city. This article also provides a new idea for predicting the travel choices of private car owners in cluster city.