震后损失快速评估研究综述

A Review of the Rapid Assessment of Post-earthquake Losses

震后损失快速评估是减灾与后续应急的重要途径,主要包括人员伤亡评估和经济损失评估。从人员伤亡、直接经济损失、间接经济损失三方面进行研究:人员伤亡评估方法主要包括数学方法与统计方法,数学方法经典,统计方法科学;直接经济损失分为三阶段,依次递进分析处于不同阶段的核心方法与特点;间接经济损失主要是基于经济学模型、经验统计模型及大数据分析进行测算。依据上述内容本文提出了当前研究热点问题与核心方法,经典统计方法传统且最有活力,易损性方法最直接,机器学习方法最常用。最后提出目前研究方法的存在问题并通过对方法的分析与整理给出未来研究的趋势与展望。

The rapid assessment of post-earthquake losses which includes casualty assessment and economic loss assessment is the basis of disaster reduction and follow-up emergency response.In this paper,the rapid assessment of post-earthquake losses is studied from the following three aspects:casualties,direct economic losses and indirect economic losses.The rapid assessment methods of casualty mainly include mathematical and statistical methods,classical mathematical methods and scientific statistical methods.The rapid assessment of direct economic losses is divided into three stages,and the core methods and their characteristics in different stages is also analyzed in a progressive way.The indirect economic losses are mainly calculated based on economic models,empirical statistical models and big data analysis.On this basis,we put forward hot issues and core methods of the current research.Among them,the characteristic of the classic statistical method is traditional and most dynamic,the characteristic of the vulnerability method is most direct,and the characteristic of the machine learning method is the most commonly used.Finally,we proposed the existing problems of the current research methods,and put forward the future research trends and prospects.