城市轨道交通项目安全风险二维云模型评价

Safety Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Transit Project Based on Two-dimensional Cloud Model

为解决城市轨道交通项目安全风险评价过程中的随机性和模糊性,提高风险评价的科学性,采用二维云模型评估城市轨道交通项目安全风险。依据4M1E理论选取16个安全风险影响因素,用C-OWA确定指标权重,兼顾风险可能性和风险后果,以概率和后果作为二维云模型的维度,利用云发生器计算概率风险云和后果风险云的云数字特征,生成评价云图。用可视化的云图配合接近度来判定风险等级。运用该模型对某城市轨道交通项目进行安全风险评价,为城市轨道交通项目风险评估提供了新思路。

In order to solve the inevitable issue of randomness and fuzziness in the risk assessment process of the urban rail transit projects and improve the scientificity of risk assessment,we assessed the risk of the urban rail transit projects based on the two-dimensional cloud model.Firstly,we selected sixteen influence factors of safty risk based on 4M1E theory(including Man,Material,Machine,Method and Environment),and determined the index weight by Combination Ordered Weighted Aveaging(C-OWA)operator.Secondly,taking into account the possibility and the consequences of risks,we calculated the digital characteristics of the probabilistic risk cloud and consequene risk cloud by using the cloud generator to obtain the two-dimensional cloud model of safety risk assessment of urban rail transit project.and the safty risk level is determined by combining the visual cloud map with the proximity between comprehancive risk cloud and standard risk cloud.Finnaly,the two-dimensional cloud model is applied to assess the safety risk of an urban rail transit project,which could provide a new idea for the risk assessment of urban rail transit project.