当前影响我国价格稳定的因素及其对策

Study on the Countermeasures and Factors influencing the Current Price Stability in China

近两年,全球多国出现了不同程度的通货膨胀,但我国经济运行的总体情况表现稳定,物价水平一直处在一个较为平稳的运行区间内,全年物价水平波动幅度不大,都实现了政府预定的价格调控目标。2021年度,国内生产总值达到了1143670亿元,与2020年相比,增长了8.1%,全国CPI涨幅仅为0.9个百分点。2022年新冠肺炎疫情继续给全世界经济运行带来了较大的冲击,同时也影响到了我国的经济运行。综合国内国外的情况来看,我国经济基本面依然良好,发展潜力巨大,但也要看到,当前全球疫情扩散蔓延,世界局势动荡不安,地缘政治冲突加剧,外部不稳定不确定性加大,国内经济恢复仍不均衡,企业成本上升的压力仍然较大,经济持续恢复的基础尚不牢固,预计2022年我国CPI存在上涨幅度超过预期的风险,个别月度CPI同比涨幅有超过“警戒线3%”的可能性,CPI涨幅走势将呈“前低后高”态势。

In the past two years, many countries around the world have experienced varying degrees of inflation, but the overall situation of China’s economic operation is stable.The price level has been in a relatively stable operation range.The fluctuation range of the price level throughout the year is small, and the price control target set by the government has been achieved.In 2021,the GDP reached 114367 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% compared with 2020,and the increase of national CPI was only 0.9 percentage points.In 2022,the novel coronavirus epidemic continued to have a great impact on the economic operation of the world, and also affected the economic operation of China.Judging from the domestic and foreign situation, China’s economic fundamentals are still good and its development potential is huge.However, it should also be noted that the current global epidemic has spread, the world situation is turbulent, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, external instability and uncertainty have increased, the domestic economic recovery is still uneven, the pressure of rising enterprise costs is still large, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery is not solid, It is estimated that there is a risk that China’s CPI will rise more than expected in 2022.The year-on-year increase of individual monthly CPI is likely to exceed the warning line by 3%,and the increase trend of CPI will be“ low before high”.