农业保险保费补贴政策是否缓解了农产品市场风险

Did agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy reduce market risks of agricultural products in China

最近几年的中央一号文件均有涉及深化农业保险发展的内容,在进一步推进农业保险前,探究农业保险保费补贴政策是否有效降低农产品市场风险有显著的政策和现实意义。本文以首批中央财政农业保险保费补贴的农产品水稻、玉米、小麦、大豆和棉花为例,首先利用Chow检验判断中央财政出台农业保险保费补贴政策是否为大宗农产品价格变化的一个间断点,之后利用GARCH模型探究中央财政施行农业保险保费补贴后,农产品市场价格波动的风险是否发生显著变化。结果表明,农业保险保费补贴政策实施后,水稻、玉米、小麦、大豆和棉花价格的变异系数明显下降;中央财政对农业保险保费补贴是这5类农产品价格变动的一个间断点。GARCH模型证实了农业保险保费补贴政策降低了这5类农产品价格波动的程度,即农业保险保费补贴政策缓解了大宗粮棉油农产品市场风险。研究表明,中央财政补贴农业保险保费的政策,实际上是利用市场化手段间接管控农业风险,这种方式是有效的,夯实了农业保险扩面、增品、提标的必要性。

In recent years,the No.1 Central Document proposed to deepen the development of agricultural insurance.Before further promoting agricultural insurance,it is significant to analyze whether agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy is effective in reducing agricultural market risks.The central government subsidized the first batch of crop insurance premiums,including rice,corn,wheat,soybean,and cotton.In this paper,we investigated whether the market risks of the five agricultural products have changed or not after implementing the insurance premium subsidy policies.Results show that the coefficients of the price variations of rice,corn,wheat,soybean,and cotton decreased significantly after the implementation of the agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy.The GARCH model confirms that the agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy reduces the volatility of six types of agricultural product prices,that is,the agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy alleviates the market risks of bulk agricultural products.The central government’s policy of subsidizing agricultural insurance premiums is actually an indirect regulationof agricultural risks by market-oriented means.This study also finds that the crop insurance premium subsidy policy is effective and necessary to increase agricultural product categories,to improve and expand the policy to all provinces.