吉林省乡村地域系统脆弱性演变及其成因类型划分研究

Research on the evolution of rural territorial system vulnerability in Jilin Province and its genetic classification

当前我国正面临乡村主导产业退化、粮食生产功能弱化等乡村发展问题,而对于乡村地域系统农业结构改善与经济、社会保障、生态等功能提升是保障国家粮食安全和区域可持续发展的根基,是实现乡村振兴战略的重要保障。本文以吉林省为例,选择县域为单元,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度构建乡村地域系统脆弱性评价体系,综合运用因子分析法、熵值法和脆弱性综合评价模型,分析2005—2019年吉林省乡村地域系统脆弱性,利用主导因素法分析不同县域乡村脆弱性主导要素。结果表明,吉林省乡村地域敏感性呈波动上升趋势,暴露度和适应能力呈下降趋势,综合作用结果导致吉林省乡村地域系统整体脆弱性呈现波动下降趋势。吉林省乡村地域系统脆弱程度具有明显的空间聚集性,表现为“中西部低,两边高”的空间格局。根据乡村地域系统脆弱程度的主导因素,将研究区划分为7种成因类型,极度和重度脆弱程度的14个县,主要以敏感性—适应能力为主导因素类型;中度脆弱程度的23个县,主要以适应能力为主导因素类型;轻度和轻微脆弱程度的23个县,主要以适应能力和暴露度—敏感性—适应能力为主导因素类型。因此,提出应从强化水土保持、加强地质灾害治理力度、改造中低产田、加强政府支持引导等方面开展差异化调控措施,全面提升吉林省不同县域乡村地域系统抗风险能力。

China is facing severe rural development challenges such as the degradation of rural leading industries and weakening of food production functions.The improvement of the agricultural structure of the rural territorial system and the improvement of economic,social security,ecological and other functions are the foundation for national food security and regional sustainable development.It is an important step toward rural revitalization.This research constructed evaluation system to assess the vulnerability of rural territorial system from three dimensions (i.e.,exposure,sensitivity and adaptability) in Jilin Province between 2005 and 2019.The dominant factor method was used to analyze key factors of rural vulnerability in different counties.Entropy,factor analysis and comprehensive vulnerability evaluation model,were integrated to measure the vulnerability of rural territorial systems.While the sensitivity of the rural territorial system of Jilin Province had increased with significant fluctuations,the exposure and adaptability had decreased.The vulnerability of the rural territorial system of Jilin Province has a significant spatial variation,being low in the middle and west and high on both east and west portion of the province.The extremely and severely vulnerable counties are mainly in the west and the southeast,the moderately vulnerable counties are concentrated in the western and the northeastern.The mildly and slightly vulnerable counties are mainly concentrated in the central region.According to the dominant factors of the vulnerability of the rural territorial system,the study area were classified into 7 causal types.The dominant factors of the 14 counties with extreme and severe vulnerability are the sensitivity-adaptability and exposure-sensitivity-adaptability.For the 23 counties with moderate vulnerability,the adaptability is the dominant factor.For another 23 counties with mild and slight vulnerability,the adaptability and exposure-sensitivity-adaptability are the dominant factor.Accordingly,specific control measures include enhanced implementation of soil and water conservation,strengthening the prevention of geological disasters,increasing the fertility of medium and low-yield cropland,and strengthening government support and guidance,in order to improve the resilience of rural territorial systems in the Province.