黄河流域耕地利用效率评估及其提升路径研究

Study on the improvement of farmland use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of high-quality development

提高耕地利用效率是实现黄河流域耕地资源可持续发展的关键。基于2005—2019年黄河流域116个地级市数据,综合运用DEA、核密度估计、空间自相关分析、空间杜宾模型等探析其耕地利用效率的动态演进、区域差异及影响因素。研究发现:1)从时间变化来看,耕地利用效率整体水平不断提高,省域、流域内部差异程度均有所缓解。2)从空间特征来看,耕地利用效率表现出很强的空间集聚特征,耕地利用效率高值由点状分布逐渐向带状分布演变,重心坐标位于几何中心的东南方向,呈现“东北-西南”的变化格局。3)从影响因素来看,人均GDP、耕地投入强度、单位面积劳动力投入对耕地利用效率有显著的提升作用,而城镇化、单位面积化肥投入抑制耕地利用效率提升。同时,各因素在黄河流域内部存在不同程度的空间溢出效应。基于此,本文提出从探索区域差异化路径、加强区域合作、优化耕地生产要素投入三方面提升流域耕地利用效率的路径。

Improving farmland utilization efficiency is a key to achieving sustainable development of cropland resources in the Yellow River Basin.Based on the data of 116 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2019,this paper explored the dynamic evolution,regional differences and influencing factors of their arable land use efficiency by a combination of the DEA,and the kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation analysis and the spatial Dubin model.Results show that:1) From the temporal change perspective,the overall level of farmland use efficiency has been improving,and the degree of intra-provincial and intra-basin differences have been alleviated;2) In terms of spatial characteristics,arable land use efficiency showed strong spatial clustering characteristics,and the high value of farmland use efficiency gradually evolved from point distribution to band distribution,with the center of gravity located in the southeast of the geometric center,showing a “northeast-southwest” pattern of change;and 3) From the perspective of influencing factors,GDP per capita,farmland input intensity,and labor input per unit area significantly improve farmland use efficiency.In contrast,urbanization and fertilizer input per unit area inhibit improving farmland use efficiency.Meanwhile,each factor has different degree of spatial spillover effects within the Yellow River Basin.Based on the above results,this paper proposes a path to improve the utilization efficiency of farmland in the basin from three aspects:exploring regional differentiation path,strengthening regional cooperation path,and optimizing production factor inputs of cropland path.