FDI对我国二氧化碳排放的影响——基于空间杜宾和多重门槛模型的实证研究

Effect of FDI on carbon dioxide emission in China:an empirical study based on spatial Dubin and multiple threshold models

在努力实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的背景下,考察外商直接投资对碳排放的影响具有重要意义。通过测算2004—2019年中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)碳排放数据,采用空间杜宾模型以及面板门槛模型,从时间和空间二维视角出发,揭示FDI对碳排放的影响效应。研究表明:FDI加剧了本地区二氧化碳排放,而空间溢出效应抑制了邻近地区二氧化碳排放。区域异质性检验发现,FDI对东西部地区碳排放作用效果的差异要大于南北地区。进一步利用门槛模型检验FDI对碳排放影响的非线性特征,发现经济发展水平门槛效应下,FDI对碳排放的促进作用显著增强;产业结构高级化门槛结果表明,随着产业结构高级化水平的提高,FDI“碳减排”效果存在非线性递增的特点;在技术水平门槛效应下,FDI对碳排放存在负向影响,但抑制作用呈现递减的趋势。最后,从加强区域间“碳减排”的合作和交流、优化外商投资结构以及提高地区技术吸收转化能力等方面提出政策建议。

Under the background of trying to realize the“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”goals,it is of great significance to investigating the effect of foreign direct investment on carbon emission.By calculating the carbon emission data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2019,with spatial Dubin model and panel threshold model,this paper reveals the effect of FDI on carbon emission in the perspective of two dimensions of time and space.The study shows that FDI intensifies the carbon dioxide emission in this region while spatial spillover effect inhibits the carbon dioxide emission in adjacent areas.The regional heterogeneity test finds that the difference of the effect of FDI on carbon emission in the eastern and western regions is greater than that in the northern and southern regions.It further uses the threshold model to test the nonlinear characteristics of the effect of FDI on carbon emission,and finds that under the threshold effect of economic development level,the promoting effect of FDI on carbon emission is significantly enhanced.The threshold results show that with the optimization of industrial structure,there exist the nonlinear incremental characteristics in the“carbon emission reduction”effect of FDI.Under the threshold effect of technology level,FDI has a negative effect on carbon emission,but the inhibitory effect shows a decreasing trend.Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of strengthening the cooperation and exchange of“carbon emission reduction”among regions,optimizing the structure of foreign investment and improving the ability of regional technology absorption and transformation.