信誉与信心的平衡:东盟应对缅甸变局的政策分析

The Balance Between Prestige and Confidence:Analysis on ASEAN’s Policy of Managing the Change in Myanmar

缅甸变局发生以来,东盟感受到了巨大的压力,缅甸问题成为其必须正视和解决的优先议题。东盟努力坚持既有原则,如强调维护成员国主权独立,坚决不干涉缅甸内政;保护人权、民主和法治,向缅甸当局施加适度压力;关注集体凝聚力和团结,希望缅甸变局能在东盟的框架内得到妥善解决;重视和平稳定,以及不希望缅甸变局引发地区局势动荡等,让自身赢得较高的信誉。然而,东盟无法左右更加错综复杂的缅甸局势,不能决定缅甸的未来,削弱缅甸的东盟成员国资格可能是一把“双刃剑”,而且,东盟无力阻止美国和欧洲国家对缅甸的制裁等都在削弱自身妥善解决缅甸问题的信心。为此,东盟谨慎推进“建设性接触”政策方针,寻求与缅甸军方在相互斗争和妥协中找到双方都能接受的方案,维护东盟和缅甸的共同利益。中国始终坚持劝和促谈的政策主张,在推进东盟改善与缅甸关系中发挥建设性作用。

Since the political change in Myanmar,ASEAN has felt great pressure,and the Myanmar issue has become a priority issue that it must face up to and solve.ASEAN adheres to the existing principles,such as maintaining the sovereignty and independence of its member states and resolute non-interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs;protecting human rights,democracy,and the rule of law to exert appropriate pressure on the Myanmar authorities;focusing on the collective cohesion and unity to make the changes in Myanmar properly resolved within the framework of ASEAN;attaching importance to peace and stability with the hope of no regional unrest out of the changes in Myanmar to win considerable credibility.However,ASEAN is unable to control Myanmar’s even more complex current situation and its future,therefore weakening Myanmar’s ASEAN membership could be a double-edged sword.In addition,ASEAN is unable to stop the United States and European countries from imposing sanctions imposed on Myanmar.All these are undermining ASEAN’s confidence in properly solving the Myanmar problem.Therefore,ASEAN cautiously promotes the policy of Constructive Engagement(CE),seeks to find acceptable solutions after struggles and compromises with the Myanmar military,and safeguards the common interests.So far,China has always adhered to the policy of promoting peace and talks,and played a constructive role in promoting ASEAN to improve its relations with Myanmar.