中国居民收入分配差距测算及其影响因素研究

Research on Residents’Income Gaps and Influencing Factors of China

缩小居民收入分配差距是推进共同富裕的应有之义和重要举措。基于泰尔指数对1949-2019年的中国居民收入分配差距进行量化测度,并进一步构建动态空间计量模型实证研究了中国地区和城乡居民收入分配差距的影响因素。研究结果表明:其一,中华人民共和国成立以来中国居民收入分配差距呈现周期性波动态势,总体来看,当前收入分配差距略低于历史平均水平且呈平稳缩小态势。城乡收入不平等是居民收入分配差距总体偏大的主要成因。其二,从地区收入分配差距的影响因素来看,经济增长、教育发展、宏观调控总体上有助于缩小地区收入分配差距;改革开放以来产业结构高级化缩小了地区收入分配差距,但产业结构非农化则产生反向作用;经济对外开放和城镇化则扩大了地区收入分配差距。其三,从城乡收入分配差距的影响因素来看,产业发展扩大了城乡收入分配差距,改革开放之前经济增长总体上缩小了城乡收入分配差距,但改革开放之后这种效果有所减弱;对外开放拉大了城乡收入分配差距;城镇化对城乡收入分配差距缩小产生了积极作用;教育发展在改革开放之前拉大了城乡收入分配差距,改革开放之后这种负面效果不再显著。

Narrowing the income gap is an important measure to gradually achieve the goal of common prosperity.This paper takes Theil index as the core index,quantitatively measures and decomposes the residents’income distribution gap from 1949 to 2019,and further constructs an dynamic spatial econometric model according to the calculation to empirically tests the economic and social factors affecting the income distribution gap between regions and urban and rural residents in China.The results show that:First,since the founding of the people’s Republic of China,China’s residents’income distribution gap has shown a periodic wave dynamic trend.On the whole,the current income distribution gap is slightly lower than the historical average level and shows a steady narrowing trend.Urban and rural income inequality is the main cause of the overall large income distribution gap in China.Second,economic growth,educational development and macro-control are generally conducive to narrowing the regional income distribution gap.Since the reform and opening up,the advanced development of industrial structure has generally narrowed the income distribution gap of regional residents,but the non-agricultural development of industrial structure has a reverse effect.Economic opening to the outside world and urbanization are mainly manifested in the effect of expanding the income distribution gap of regional residents.Third,industrial development has widened the income gap between urban and rural areas.Before the reform and opening up,economic growth narrowed the income distribution gap between urban and rural residents,but this effect has weakened after the reform and opening up.Opening to the outside world has widened the income distribution gap between urban and rural residents on the whole.Urbanization has played a positive role in narrowing the income distribution gap between urban and rural areas.Educational development widened the income distribution gap between urban and rural areas before the reform and opening up.After the reform and opening up,this negative effect is no longer significant.