碳排放强度对居民消费价格指数的影响研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Carbon Emission Intensity on Consumer Price Index

碳排放强度不仅影响生态环境质量,同时也对居民消费价格指数产生影响。控制碳排放强度不仅是实现“双碳”目标的重要措施,也是稳定居民消费价格指数的有效手段。本文首先围绕碳排放强度对居民消费价格指数影响的相关研究进行了综述,结合碳排放强度对居民消费价格指数影响的作用机理进行了理论分析。运用中国2000-2020年的时间序列数据,选取碳排放强度、大中型工业企业营业成本和居民消费价格指数三个变量,建立了碳排放强度对居民消费价格指数影响的向量自回归(VAR)模型,对碳排放强度对居民消费价格指数的影响进行了实证研究。研究发现:碳排放强度和大中型工业企业营业成本是居民消费价格指数的格兰杰原因,居民消费价格指数同时也是碳排放强度和大中型工业企业营业成本的格兰杰原因;碳排放强度是大中型工业企业营业成本的格兰杰原因,但大中型工业企业营业成本对碳排放强度的影响不显著。碳排放强度冲击是影响居民消费价格指数最显著的因素,其次是大中型工业企业营业成本,居民消费价格指数自身因素的冲击影响最小;并且碳排放强度、大中型工业企业营业成本和居民消费价格指数自身对居民消费价格指数的冲击影响在前期较大,随后逐渐趋于平稳。此外,从长期看,碳排放强度是居民消费价格指数变动的主要贡献者,其次是大中型工业企业营业成本,居民消费价格指数的贡献率最小。依据上述研究结论,本文提出要有效控制居民消费价格指数,必须首先控制碳排放强度。碳排放强度是影响居民消费价格指数的重要因素,大中型工业企业营业成本对居民消费价格指数也造成一定影响。结合中国实际情况,本文提出了进一步控制中国的碳排放总量与碳排放强度,高度重视碳排放强度对居民消费价格指数及经济社会发展影响的政策建议。

Carbon emission intensity not only has a significant impact on ecological and environmental quality,but also imposes a non-negligible influence on consumer price index(CPI).Therefore,effectively reducing carbon emission intensity is considered as a major policy measure to be taken to achieve China’s carbon peak and neutrality targets,as well as an important policy tool to be utilized to stabilize CPI.This article firsty reviews the related research on the impact of carbon emission intensity on CPI,and analyzes the impact and influencing mechanism of carbon emission intensity on CPI from a theoretical perspective.Based on the time series data of carbon emission intensity,operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises and CPI from 2000 through 2020,the vector autoregression(VAR)model of the impact of carbon emission intensity on CPI is established,and the empirical research on the impact of carbon emission intensity on CPI is conducted.It is found that carbon emission intensity and operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises Granger cause CPI,and CPI also Granger causes carbon emission intensity and operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises.Moreover,carbon emission intensity is the Granger cause of the operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises,but the operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises has no statistically significant impact on carbon emission intensity.This article further employs impulse response analysis and finds that:the impact of carbon emission intensity on CPI is the most salient,followed by that of the operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises,and CPI itself has the least significant influence on CPI.Meanwhile,the influence of these three indicators on CPI is more evident and volatile in the short term,however,the volatility of the impact tends to be more stable in the long term.Additionally,the results of utilizing variance decomposition analysis reveal that:in the long term,carbon emission intensity contributes the most to the change of CPI,followed by the operating costs of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises,and CPI itself contributes the least to CPI.The research results are valuable to policy makers in the following ways:First,policy makers should take action to effectively control the total quantity of carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,and should also attach great importance to the potential impact of carbon emission intensity on CPI as well as economic development.Second,all levels of Chinese government should stipulate and enforce favorable policies to ease the financial burden of industrial enterprises,paying special attention to the enterprises who have suffered more especially against the backdrop of the COVID-19.Third,to further lower the treatment cost of carbon reduction to the greatest extent,policy makers should help to improve the utilization level of carbon dioxide with a focus on various carbon reduction technologies and techniques such as carbon capture,usage and storage(CCUS).Last but not least,policy makers should strengthen the theoretical research on achieving China’s carbon peak and neutrality targets.Measures such as providing more financial support to the basic research,organizing major science and technology projects,and collaborating in making breakthroughs on key technologies,etc,could be taken.