一种整合室外空间行为的热暴露风险评估新方法

A New Evaluation Method for Heat Exposure Risk Integrated With Outdoor Spatial Behaviour

本文提出了一种整合平均辐射温度与人群空间分布的热暴露风险综合评估方法,解决了现有客观参量评估法缺乏人群需求因子的问题。结合数字地表模型和气象数据,采用SOLWEIG模型模拟平均辐射温度,并将模拟结果与现场实测结果相对比验证其适用性;以平均辐射温度强度与持续时间积累值定义了热应力强度指数,叠加人群空间分布核密度分析,构建了热暴露风险综合指数,并给出了其分级方法和风险等级,进一步得到热暴露风险等级的空间分布。应用于大连理工大学绿色校园规划的案例结果表明,热暴露风险综合评估方法可显著减少热环境评估结果与室外空间主观需求之间的偏差,提升优化设计策略的精准性、有效性和经济性,在“以人为本”理念下实现成本可控、最大限度提升室外热舒适度、减少气候变暖背景下高温热浪带来的负面影响。

A new heat exposure risk evaluation method integrating mean radiation temperature and population distribution is proposed,addressing the lack of population needs in existing objective parameter evaluation methods.The SOLWEIG(Solar and Longwave Environmental Irradiance Geometry)model is applied to estimate the mean radiation temperature based on digital surface models and meteorological data,and the simulation results are compared with field measurements to verify their applicability;the heat stress intensity index is defined through mean radiation temperature intensity and duration accumulation value.The comprehensive heat exposure risk index is constructed by superimposing the population kernel density analysis,and its grading method and risk level are given to further obtain the spatial distribution of heat exposure risk levels.The results applied to the green campus planning of Dalian University of Technology show that,under the concept of"people-oriented",the new method can significantly reduce the deviation between thermal environment evaluation results and the subjective demand of outdoor space,improve the accuracy,effectiveness and economy of the optimal design strategies,achieve cost control,maximise outdoor thermal comfort and reduce the negative impact of heat waves in the context of climate warming.