可见彩虹评估概念模型构建及全国范围内彩虹资源时空分布特征分析

Construction of a Visible Rainbow Assessment Conceptual Model and Analysis of Rainbow Resource Spatio-temporal Distribution in China

彩虹是极具观赏价值的天气景观资源之一,却一直缺乏有效的历史观测数据。为了解全国彩虹资源分布特征,给各地旅游等产业提供气象服务支撑,本文基于相关理论,分析确定了出现彩虹所必需的4个影响指标:雷暴天气的多寡、太阳高度角大小、合适的地形及能见度,并据此构建了可见彩虹评估概念模型;运用此模型,依据1980~2010年全国气象观测数据及纬度数据,评估了彩虹资源的分布并得出如下结论:(1)华南、云南南部及青藏高原彩虹资源相对丰富。其中华南地区在不同季节出现彩虹的可能性于全国范围内位居前列,但冬季内总体数量不多。(2)北方地区大部相较南方彩虹资源总体偏少,但个别地方,如新疆西部及华北北部的部分地区,彩虹资源受太阳高度角和地形、能见度、雷暴天气的综合影响,丰富程度在全国排名非常靠前,具有开发彩虹生态旅游资源的优势。(3)经检验分析,该概念模型可以用于对全国范围彩虹资源丰富程度的分析或排序;也可进一步推广应用于彩虹预报模型中,以助提高彩虹景观的预报准确率。

Rainbows are a weather landscape resource with great ornamental value but no effective observation data.To know the distribution of rainbow resources in China and provide meteorological services for local tourism and other industries,on the basis of relevant theories,four factors necessary for rainbows are determined,which are the number of thunderstorms,the solar altitude,the terrain,and the visibility affecting rainbow viewing quality.A conceptual model of visible rainbow evaluation is constructed based on these factors.Using this model,the distribution of rainbow resources is evaluated based on the national meteorological observation data and latitude data from 1980 to 2010,and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The rainbow resources in South China,southern Yunnan and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are relatively rich.Among them,the possibility of a rainbow appearing in different seasons in South China is at the forefront of the whole country,but few rainbows appear in winter.(2)the abundance of rainbow resources is smaller in the northern region than in the south,but in some places,it is very high in the national ranking because of the comprehensive influence of solar altitude,topography,visibility,and thunderstorm weather.For example,the western part of Xinjiang and some parts of northern North China have the advantage of developing rainbow ecotourism.Particularly in Zhaosu,Xinjiang,from May to September,the number and ornamental value of rainbows ranked first in China.(3)inspection shows that the conceptual model can be used to evaluate or rank the richness of rainbow resources throughout the country and can be further applied to the rainbow forecasting model,which will improve the accuracy of rainbow predictions.