提高宏观税负能否激发基础研究的经济绩效?——基于跨国数据的经验分析

Can Increasing the Macro Tax Burden Stimulate the Economic Performance of Basic Research?-An Empirical Analysis Based on Transnational Data

较高的宏观税负有助于弥补基础研究自生能力不足,促进其投入结构优化和成果连续转化,增进基础研究投入对全要素生产率的正向作用,使基础研究的经济绩效得到激发。基于跨国面板数据,实证检验了宏观税负在基础研究投入影响全要素生产率过程中的调节效应。结果显示:第一,宏观税负越高,基础研究投入越有助于一国全要素生产率提升;第二,宏观税负超过一定门限值时,基础研究投入的经济绩效有所强化;第三,直接税税负的调节效应与宏观税负方向一致,间接税税负与之相反;第四,营商环境越优,宏观税负的正向调节效应越强。以上国际经验对中国有以下启示:一是保持稳定且适度较高的宏观税负,以强有力的政府引导、充足的公共投入和尽可能少的跨期不确定性,支撑基础科学发展,推动实现科技自立自强;二是在新的减税降费过程中,构建税基—税负、中期财政规划—逆周期调控、结构减税—精准纾困动态联动的体制机制。

In recent decades,the focus of science and technology competition in various countries has been moving forward to basic research and major principle innovation.Many countries have put forward grand basic science development plans,and the investment in basic research has increased rapidly,but they may not be able to achieve corresponding macroeconomic benefits.The reason why the basic research investment of some countries is difficult to achieve the expected economic performance may be that the macro tax burden is too low,which leads to the lack of full access to the research fields that lack self-regeneration ability but are of strategic significance,leading to the phenomenon of repeated research at a low and medium level.Existing literature pays more attention to the impact of the proportion of government funds or subsidy intensity in basic research investment on its economic performance.However,the macro tax burden has the dual role of supporting government investment and leveraging the entry of social capital.The level at which it can maximize the economic performance of basic research is more worthy of in-depth exploration.This paper empirically tests the moderating effect of macro tax burden in the process of the impact of basic research input on total factor productivity(TFP)by using transnational panel data and connecting UNESCO database,World Bank database and UNCTAD database.The empirical results are as follows.First,on the whole,the higher the macro tax burden,the stronger the positive effect of basic research investment on TFP and patent density,that is,increasing the macro tax burden will help basic research investment of the same scale to achieve higher economic performance.Second,when the macro tax burden exceeds the threshold of 23.58%,the positive effect of basic research investment on TFP is significantly strengthened,and when it exceeds 23.74%,the positive effect of basic research investment on patent density is significantly weakened.Third,the moderating effect of tax burden of different tax types is different,that is,the moderating effect of direct tax burden is consistent with the macro tax burden,while that is not the case for indirect tax burden.Fourth,the positive moderating effect of macro tax burden is positively moderated by the business environment.The main implications of this paper are as follows.High macro tax burden helps to make up for the lack of self-regeneration capacity of basic research,promotes the optimization of its investment structure and the continuous transformation of achievements,and brings better macroeconomic performance.In the window period of technological innovation led by basic science,blindly reducing the macro tax burden overweighs the benefits for a country.If a country wants to stimulate the economic performance of basic research by increasing the macro tax burden,the tax structure adjustment based on direct tax and optimization of business environment are necessary.Compared with existing research,this paper has achieved some new progress.First,we make an analysis beyond the perspective of direct investment intensity of the government in basic research,observe the supporting role of macro tax burden in the optimization of basic research investment structure,and expand the source of basic research funds to the comprehensive dimension of innovative investment guidance mechanism.Second,this paper gives consideration to both increase of the macro tax burden and empowerment to the market players,and gives a certain quantitative basis.The international experience gained in this paper provides important implications for China to build itself into an innovative country.In order to promote the high-quality development driven by basic science and realize the self-reliance and self-improvement of science and technology,at this stage,China should not only maintain the rapid growth of basic research investment,but also pay attention to curbing low and medium-level repeated research,address the bottleneck for the transformation of basic research achievements,explore a new national system matching the development driven by basic science innovation,and build a corresponding public fund-raising and burden mechanism.First,China should strengthen financial support for major scientific and technological strategic tasks,and explore innovative investment and financing mechanisms suitable for basic research.Second,China should explore a linking fiscal and tax management system of tax base and tax burden,medium-term fiscal planning and annual regulation,and targeted difficulty resolution and structural tax reduction,so as to promote the long-term moderate increase of macro tax burden.Third,China should promote the improvement of the business environment through institutional opening-up and support innovation in basic disciplines and knowledge accumulation.