1957-2020年吕梁山区气候变化特征及影响因素分析

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Climate Changein Lvliang Mountain Area During 1957-2020

基于1957-2020年吕梁山区及周边11个国家标准站气象数据,采用线性倾向评估法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析和Kriging空间插值对年平均气温、平均最高(最低)气温和年平均降水量特征进行分析和突变检验.研究结果表明:1957-2020年吕梁山区年平均气温显著升高,平均降水量减少,区域气候趋向暖干并且存在一定周期性;年平均气温增温速率达到0.30℃/10 a,高于全国平均水平低于黄河流域平均水平,其增温突变时间约为1995年;年平均最低气温降温速率高于年平均最高温增温速率,年平均气温升温受年平均最低气温影响更为强烈且气温日较差逐渐变大;从区域差异看,所探讨气候要素都呈现自南部向北部地区逐渐递减的趋势,南部暖干变化较北部地区显著;研究结果以期为山西省连片贫困区未来气候变化应对和农业发展提供依据.

Based on the meteorological data of 11 national standard stations in Lvliang mountain area and its surrounding areas from 1957 to 2020,the characteristics of annual mean temperature,average maximum(minimum)temperature and annual mean precipitation were analyzed and tested by linear trend assessment method,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis and Kriging spatial interpolation.The results show that the annual average temperature in Lvliang mountain area increases significantly from 1957 to 2020,while the average precipitation does not decrease significantly,and the regional climate tends to be warm and dry with a certain periodicality.The annual average temperature increase rate reached 0.30℃/10 a,which was higher than the national average and lower than the average of the Yellow River Basin,and the abrupt change of temperature was about 1995.The annual mean minimum temperature cooling rate is higher than the annual mean maximum temperature warming rate,the annual mean minimum temperature warming is more strongly affected by the annual mean minimum temperature,and the daily temperature range gradually becomes larger.From the perspective of regional differences,the climate elements discussed in this study gradually decreased from the south to the north,and the change of warm and dry in the south was more significant than that in the north.The results are expected to provide a basis for future climate change response and agricultural development in contiguous poverty-stricken areas of Shanxi Province.