计划生育政策放松对我国家庭储蓄率的影响--基于“单独二孩政策”的研究

The Impact of Family Planning Relaxation on Household Saving Rate:An Investigation on the“Conditional Two-child”Policy

中国家庭的高储蓄行为广受学界关注,其中,低生育率导致的家庭代际结构变化是高储蓄的重要原因。近年来,中国计划生育政策逐渐放松,这是否有助于降低家庭储蓄率?本文使用2010年、2012年和2014年CFPS数据,借助“单独二孩政策”这一准自然实验,利用双重差分模型探究城镇家庭生育决策短期内对储蓄行为的影响。结果显示,政策放开对降低储蓄率的短期效果十分明显,政策适用家庭相对于非适用家庭储蓄率显著下降3.4%。政策效果的异质性研究显示,第一胎为女孩、收入水平较低的家庭储蓄率下降更明显,符合中国家庭对于子女性别偏好,以及收入对于生育意愿影响的预期。

The high saving rate among Chinese families has drawn attention from economists for a long time.One of the main reasons is found to be the family structure change due to the low fertility rate.In recent years,the family planning policy has been gradually relaxed.Does this help to reduce the household saving rate?Using the CFPS data in year 2010,2012 and 2014,this paper examines the short-run effect of fertility decision on household saving rate after the“conditional two-child”policy in 2013.Our baseline specification suggests a 3.4%decline in saving rate among the policy-applicable households relative to those non-applicable ones.Further investigation of the heterogenous policy effects reveals that the decline in saving rate is stronger in families with the first child being a girl,or with lower family income.These observations are in line with the gender preference of Chinese families and the impact of family income on fertility choices.