河南省农业碳排放量测算及影响因素研究

Study on the Calculation and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Henan Province

基于1993—2017年的相关农业数据,使用农业碳排放测算方法,测算出河南省的农业碳排放量,据此构建向量自回归模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法研究农业经济水平、城镇化和农业碳排放三者间的动态响应机制。研究结果表明:农业经济水平和城镇化对农业碳排放作用方向有所不同,其中农业经济水平呈现正向影响,城镇化呈现负向影响;农业经济水平和城镇化对农业碳排放的贡献存在差异,前者对农业碳排放的贡献值高于后者。因此,应从树牢农业绿色发展理念,转变农业生产方式;适度推进城镇化进程,促进城镇化与农业协调发展;发挥政府主导作用,调动农户生产积极性三个方面提高河南省农业低碳发展水平。

Based on the relevant agricultural data from 1993 to 2017, the agricultural carbon emissions of Henan Province was calculated by using the agricultural carbon emission measurement. Then, a vector autoregressive model was constructed to study the dynamic response mechanism among agricultural economic level, urbanization and agricultural carbon emissions by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The results show that: 1) the effect directions of agricultural economic level and urbanization on agricultural carbon emissions are different. Agricultural economic level has a positive effect while urbanization has a negative effect. 2) The contribution of agricultural economic level to agricultural carbon emission is different from that of urbanization. The contribution of agricultural economic level to agricultural carbon emission is higher than that of urbanization. Based on this, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the low-carbon development of agriculture in Henan Province.