中国代际社会流动的变迁——基于多重机制的分析

Changes in Intergenerational Social Mobility in China: An Multiple-Mechanism Approach

本文构建了一个多重机制的分析框架,对影响中国代际社会流动趋势变迁的多重机制及相互作用进行了探究。研究发现,无论是男性还是女性群体中,从1960出生世代到1980出生世代均经历了一个代际社会流动先升后降的过程。就其机制而言,男性代际社会流动初始的提升源于个人的家庭背景对其终职地位的直接影响下降,后期代际流动的下降则主要是教育机会获得不平等和家庭背景的直接影响增强共同所致。女性代际社会流动初始的上升源于家庭背景直接影响的下降和教育机会获得的平等化,而后期代际地位关联度的反弹则主要是因为家庭背景的直接影响增强。

Based on a multiple-mechanism approach, this paper examines how multiple mechanisms and their interactions have contributed to intergenerational social mobility trends in China. The findings reveal that both men and women have experienced an inverted V-shaped trend in social fluidity from 1960 birth cohort to 1980 birth cohort. For men, the counterfactual analysis suggests that the initial increase in social fluidity is driven by weakening direct effect of family background on occupational attainment, while the subsequent decline in social fluidity is because of soaring inequality of educational opportunity attainment and intensifying direct influence of class origins on class destinations. For women, the increase in social fluidity stems from declining direct influence of family background on occupational attainment as well as equalization of educational opportunity attainment, and the succeeding strengthening association between class origins and class destinations is mainly due to enhancing direct effect of family background on status attainment.