基于IAHP-Fuzzy的岩溶隧道突水风险预测

Water Inrush Risk Prediction of Karst Tunnel Based on IAHP-Fuzzy Method

突水突泥是岩溶隧道施工阶段的主要工程灾害之一,有必要对其潜在风险等级进行预测。以宜万铁路野三关隧道工程为背景,采用文献调研法,将影响隧道突水风险的因素归结为工程地质条件、水文地质条件和岩体质量条件,并建立了对应的评价指标体系,通过形成各层次因素的区间判断矩阵确定指标权重,运用IAHP-Fuzzy法实现了岩溶隧道突水风险分级。综合3个一级指标和11个二级指标形成了隧道突水突泥的层次分析模型和风险分级体系。通过区间层次分析法确定了指标权重,计算结果显示,水压力特征在各指标中占比最高,高水压是造成野三关隧道突水的最直接诱因。通过验算,水压力为0.1 MPa时隧道突水风险为弱风险,建议采取预注浆加固等主动防护措施降低水压力,该验算进一步证明了模型的可行性。

Water and mud inrush is one of the main engineering disasters in the construction stage of karst tunnel,so it is necessary to predict its potential risk level.Taking Yesanguan tunnel of Yiwan railway as the engineering background,the factors affecting the water inrush risk of the tunnel are summed up as engineering geological conditions,hydrogeological conditions and rock mass quality conditions by the literature survey method,and the corresponding evaluation index system is established.The interval judgment matrix of factors at each level is formed to determine the index weight,and the interval analytic hierarchy process(IAHP)-Fuzzy method is used to realize the classification of water inrush risk in karst tunnels.The analytic hierarchy process model and risk classification system of water and mud inrush in tunnels are formed by combining 3 first-level indexes and 11 second-level indexes.The index weights are determined by IAHP.The calculation results show that water pressure characteristics account for the highest proportion in all indexes,and high water pressure is the most direct cause of water inrush in Yesanguan tunnel.Through the verification calculation,the risk of water inrush in the tunnel is weak when the water pressure is 0.1 MPa,which effectively reduces the risk of water inrush.It is suggested to take active protective measures such as pre-grouting reinforcement to reduce the water pressure and guide the actual construction.The verification further proves the feasibility of the model.