基于北极航道全成本模型的液化天然气进口船队规模研究

Vessel fleet configuration for liquefied natural gas import via Arctic passage based on the full cost model

北极地区能源项目的开发以及北极海域冰雪覆盖范围的不断缩小,为中国进口天然气开辟了新的通道,这将增强中国能源安全供给保障。随着中国天然气需求量迅速增加,规模化进口北极液化天然气(LNG)的条件逐步成熟。为建设一支既经济又可靠的进口运输船队,本文在对北极天然气采掘和贸易分析的基础上,分析了北极东北航道通航状况,以及不同季节各航段差异对船队运输的影响,建立了全成本LNG进口船队优化模型。并以年进口700万吨为案例分析,选取了不同装载容量的LNG船型,通过分层建模及模型优化运算,得出了船队优化配置结论。航运全成本模型的研究奠定了北极LNG运输船队经济规模分析的基础,也为冰雪航道贸易船队运营决策提供了解决方法。

The development of energy projects in the Arctic and the decrease of Arctic sea ice extent have opened up new channels for China to import natural gas, which will enhance the security of China’s energy supply.In China, the demand for natural gas is increasing rapidly, and can be met by large-scale import of Arctic liquefied natural gas(LNG). We developed an optimization model to examine the economic and reliability of LNG vessel fleet deployment along the Arctic shipping routes. The model includes a full cost analysis and analyses of navigation conditions of the Arctic passage and the seasonal influence of sea ice conditions on fleet deployment. Using layered modeling and optimization and considering LNG vessels with different loading capacities, we found the optimal fleet configuration for a case study of an annual import of 7 million tons of LNG. The full-cost shipping model established in this paper lays the foundation for economic analyse of Arctic LNG transportation fleets, and provides a tool to support operations of fleets in icy waters.