江苏盐城滨海湿地景观格局演变及其驱动因素分析

Analysis of landscape change and driving factors of coastal wetlands in yancheng, Jiangsu Province

为揭示滨海湿地景观格局演变及其驱动因素,有效解决滨海湿地生态环境发展不平衡等问题,本文根据盐城滨海湿地遥感影像数据,利用景观格局指数法定量化分析景观中斑块的面积和空间格局特征,并采用Logistic回归模型定性分析驱动因子影响规律。结果表明:1)近25年来,盐城滨海自然湿地面积持续下降,人工景观面积总体增长,大面积的自然湿地向人工景观转变;2)自然湿地斑块破碎化明显,形状趋于不规则,分布稀疏,整体景观水平指数变化复杂;3)由Logistic回归分析可知社会经济因素对自然湿地退化贡献率Wald最显著,人口数量增长及地区经济水平不断提高是导致自然湿地持续退化的主要原因,而气温升高与降水量减少也导致了自然湿地退化。

The remote images of Yancheng coastal wetland and landscape pattern indices were used to quantitatively analyze patch area and spatial pattern characteristics in landscape to reveal the evolution of the coastal wetland landscape pattern and driving factors, and effectively solve imbalance problems of the ecological environment development in coastal wetland. The logistic regression model was used to qualitatively analyze the influence regular of driving factors. The research results showed that:(1) For the largest coastal wetland in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, the area of natural wetland had decreased gradually, while the area of artificial landscape had increased on the whole;(2) Patch fragmentation of natural coastal wetland in the study area was obvious, the shape of which tends to be irregular and distributed sparsely. The overall landscape level indices changed in complexity;(3) According to Logistic model analysis, social and economic factors were most significant to the degradation of natural wetland. Growth of population and GDP were the primary reasons for the natural wetland degrade. The climate warming and reduction of precipitation also resulted in the degradation.