中国区域能源效率关键影响因素分析--基于GML指数和BMA方法的实证研究

The Key Factors Affecting Regional Energy Efficiency in China--Empirical Study Based on Global Malmquist-Luenberger and Bayesian Model Averaging Method

首先运用GML指数法测度中国30个省市^(①)2006-2017年全要素能源效率的变化,然后应用BMA方法,识别全国层面和东、中、西部地区层面能源效率提升的关键影响因素。结果表明:12年间全国及各地区能源效率呈波动上升趋势,平均来看,西部地区有所提升,东、中部地区略有下降;全国层面能源效率的关键影响因素依次为金融发展、国际贸易、产权结构、能源技术水平、劳动者素质和固定资产投资,除金融发展、产权结构、能源技术水平对各地区的影响方向一致外,其余因素对各地区的影响方向并不完全相同,各地区的关键影响因素也存在差异。最后,为全国和地区层面提升能源效率提出了政策建议。

Firstly, this paper measure the growth of the total factor energy efficiency of 30 province-level regions in China from 2006 to 2017 by the Global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index. And then it identifies the key factors affecting energy efficiency at the national and regional level respectively by Bayesian Model Averaging method. Results show that, the energy efficiency of the whole country and three regions have been fluctuating upward in the past 12 years. On average, the energy efficiency in the western region increases, while that in the eastern and central regions decreases slightly. The key factors affecting energy efficiency at the national level include financial development, foreign trade, ownership structure, energy technical level, labors quality and fixed asset investment. In these factors, financial development, ownership structure and energy technical level have the same influence directions on the three regions, while the other factors have different influence directions on each region, the key factors affecting energy efficiency of each region are different as well. Finally, it provides policy recommendations for improving energy efficiency at the national and regional levels.