中美博弈背景下的美国对华科技外交策略演变

The Evolution of the U.S.Science Diplomacy Strategy Towards China Under the Background of Sino-U.S.Competition

本文以“科技外交”的策略选择为切口,构建一个在体系层次包含“体系刺激”“体系约束”与在国内层次包含“行动逻辑”与“行动预期”的循环分析框架,就美国对华科技外交策略的选择过程与历史演进展开分析。本文的主要研究发现是,美国对华的战略构想与科技外交策略并非完全绑定,在国际环境对美国发出“模糊”信号的情况下,美国对华的科技外交策略会在“有限流动”与“有限封堵”之间摇摆,摇摆的结果取决于美国如何认知中国在体系层次对其造成的刺激。在研究构建的分析场景中发现,实力关系紧张与经济相互依存、全球治理合作的碰撞,限制了美国对华科技外交策略的可持续性。故可以推断,在“体系约束”的限制下,当美国认识到不存在用可接受的成本实现对中国科技崛起的遏制时,美国对华的科技外交策略将从“有限封堵”向“有限流动”的方向偏转,打压措施也将趋于收敛。换言之,维护和扩大中美在威望、财富领域的科技合作的同时,进一步完善中国的科技产业生态,缩小中美科技实力的差距,则美国对华的科技外交策略和相关措施将有相当概率向新力量对比下的平等合作的方向发展。

Based on the strategic choice of science diplomacy,this paper constructs a circular analysis framework including system level and national level,involving four factors:“system stimulation”,“system constraint”,“action logic”and“action expectation”,and analyzes the selection process and historical evolution of the U.S.science diplomacy strategy to China.The main finding of this paper is that the strategic vision of the U.S.towards China is not completely bound to the science diplomacy strategy.When the international environment sends a“vague”signal to the U.S.,its science diplomacy strategy towards China will swing between“limited flow”and“limited closure”.The result of the swing depends on how the U.S.perceives China’s stimulus at the system level.In the analysis scenario constructed by the study,it finds that economic interdependence and global governance cooperation will limit the sustainability of the U.S.“closure”strategy of science diplomacy towards China.Therefore,this paper argues that under the influence of system constraint,when the U.S.realizes that there is no acceptable cost to curb China’s rise,its science diplomacy strategy towards China will shift from“limited closure”to“limited flow”,and the measures of containment will tend to ease.In other words,while maintaining and expanding the scientific and technological cooperation between China and the U.S.in the fields of prestige and wealth,China should further improve its scientific and technological industrial ecology and narrow the gap between China and the U.S.in scientific and technological strength.In this case,the U.S.science diplomacy strategy and related measures towards China will have a considerable probability to develop towards equal cooperation under the new power comparison.