极端事件对我国民航客运的影响分析

Analysis of influence of extreme events on civil aviation passenger transport in China

利用时间序列分析中干预分析模型研究了我国民航客运量在极端事件时受到的干预影响.结果表明我国民航客运受到多次连续冲击,在2020年2月受到一次较大的负冲击,同样在3月也受到一次负冲击,但由于我国国内民航市场潜力大,国内控制较稳定,及政府相关政策的有效扶持,民航客运在8月份受到正冲击,下半年客运量有所恢复.全年总冲击为负值,表明此次极端事件对我国民航客运造成较大负面效应.2月份受到的冲击效应持续到年底且逐渐减弱,表明极端事件对我国民航客运造成长久且持续的影响,国内客运量仍具有进一步增长空间.

In this paper,the intervention analysis model in time series analysis was used to study the intervention impact of China s civil aviation passenger volume in extreme events such as sudden epidemic situation.The results showed that China s civil aviation passenger transport suffered continuous shocks for many times during the sudden epidemic,and suffered a large negative impact in February 2020,and also a negative impact in March.However,due to the great potential of China s domestic civil aviation market and the stable control of the domestic epidemic situation,and with the effective support of relevant government support policies,civil aviation passenger transport was positively impacted in August,and passenger volume recovered in the second half of the year.The total impact in the whole year was negative,indicating that the epidemic had a great negative effect on civil aviation passenger transport in China.The impact effect suffered in February lasted until the end of the year and gradually weakened,indicating that the epidemic had a long-term and sustained impact on China s civil aviation passenger transport,and the domestic passenger volume still had room for further growth.