中国乡村韧性时空分异及障碍因子诊断

Spatio-temporal Variation of Rural Resilience in China and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Factors

提升乡村韧性水平,建设韧性乡村,对推进乡村振兴战略、实现乡村可持续和高质量发展具有重要意义。基于“经济—社会—生态—工程”四维评估框架构建乡村韧性测度指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS、泰尔指数、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)和障碍度模型对中国乡村韧性水平进行测度,分析其时空演变规律及区域异质性,揭示其空间相关性特征,并诊断其障碍因子。研究结果显示:在时序变化上,中国乡村综合韧性水平逐年提高,空间差异先减后增;生态韧性是影响区域均衡发展的最重要因素。在空间分布上,东部地区乡村韧性高于中西部;较低韧性和低韧性区域数量较多、分布较广;区域内不均衡是导致中国乡村韧性区域差异的主要原因。在空间关联上,中国乡村韧性存在空间正相关性,全局Moran’s I指数值呈“W”型波动态势;乡村韧性的正向集聚程度增强。在障碍因子上,准则层平均障碍度依次为经济>社会>工程>生态,人均农村最低生活保障支出和每千人农村人口村卫生室人员数是制约乡村韧性提升的主要障碍因子。

Improving the level of rural resilience and building resilient villages play an important role in advancing the rural revitalization strategy and realizing sustainable and high-quality rural development. This paper constructs a rural resilience evaluation system based on the four dimensional evaluation framework of“economy—society—ecology—engineering”. By using the entropy weight-TOPSIS, theil index, exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and the obstacle model, this thesis measures China’s rural resilience, analyzes its spatio-temporal variation and spatial correlation characteristics, and diagnoses its obstacle factors. The comprehensive rural resilience of China increases year by year, and the spatial difference decreases firstly and then increases. Ecological resilience is the most important factor affecting regional balanced development of rural resilience. Rural resilience in eastern China is higher than that in central and western China;lower resilient and low resilient regions are abundant and widely distributed. Intra-regional imbalance is the main reason for the regional differences in rural resilience in China. There is a positive spatial correlation between rural resilience and the global Moran’s I index shows a W-shaped fluctuation trend. The positive agglomeration degree of rural resilience is enhanced. The average obstacle degree of criterion layer is economy>society>engineering>ecology in turn. Per capita subsistence allowance for rural residents and the number of village health clinic staff per 1000 rural population are the main obstacles to improving rural resilience.