基于灰色-加权马尔可夫预测模型的西安常住人口预测

Prediction of Permanent Resident Population in Xi’an Based on Grey-Weighted Markov Prediction Model

常住人口数量是决定供房量的关键因素,准确预测未来常住人口数量,对制定住房供给力度政策具有现实意义。文章以2010—2021年西安市常住人口总数为依据,基于灰色-加权马尔可夫预测模型对西安市未来5年常住人口进行预测。结果显示:相较于灰色G(1,1)模型,灰色-加权马尔可夫预测模型预测精度提高了79.95%;同时得出未来5年西安常住人口数量平均增长率达到2.367 9%。这一结果为制定住房供给力度政策提供了可靠的、科学的依据。

The number of permanent resident population is a key factor in determining the amount of housing available.Accurately predicting the number of permanent resident population in the future has practical significance for formulating housing supply power policies.Based on the total permanent resident population of Xi’an from 2010 to 2021,this paper predicts the permanent resident population of Xi’an in the next five years based on the Grey-Weighted Markov prediction model.The results show that compared with the gray G (1,1) model,the prediction accuracy of the Gray-Weighted Markov prediction model is improved by 79.95%.At the same time,it is concluded that the average growth rate of the permanent resident population in Xi’an will reach 2.367 9% in the next five years.It provides a reliable and scientific basis for formulating housing supply power policies.