技术不连续性视角下颠覆性技术识别方法研究

Research on Disruptive Technology Identification Methods from the Perspective of Technology Discontinuities

[目的/意义]在颠覆性技术识别中引入技术不连续性理论,探索技术不连续性视角下颠覆性技术的客观识别方法,能够丰富和拓展颠覆性技术的识别方法研究,也有助于把握科技创新规律,为科技发展提供参考和指导。[方法/过程]首先,利用专利引文网络和遗传后向—前向路径方法确定主路径对技术演化进行追踪。其次,根据引用结构与路径汇聚情况计算指标,评估技术不连续性,筛选出具有高技术不连续性的专利。最后,结合所得专利的内容信息和技术领域的现状,识别与验证颠覆性技术。[结果/结论]以手术机器人作为实证领域,使用所构建的方法成功识别了领域中已产生颠覆性效应的技术,验证了方法的有效性。

[Purpose/significance] Introducing the theory of technological discontinuity in the identification of disruptive technologies,and exploring the objective identification methods of disruptive technologies from the perspective of technological discontinuities,which can enrich and expand the research on identification methods of disruptive technologies,and also help to grasp the laws of technological innovation and contribute reference and guidance to technological development.[Method/process] Firstly,the paper uses patent citation networks and genetic backward-forward path methods to determine the main path to track technological evolution.Secondly,according to the citation structure and path convergence,the metrics are calculated,the technology discontinuities are evaluated,and the patents with high technology discontinuities are screened out.Finally,combined with the content information of the obtained patents and the current state of the technology field,disruptive technologies are identified and verified.[Result/conclusion] Taking surgical robotics technology field for demonstration,the constructed method is used to successfully identify technologies that have produced disruptive effects in the field.And the effectiveness of the method is verified.