基于S3EIR模型的政务短视频网民情绪感染路径研究

Research on Propagation Path about Netizens’ Emotions of Government Affairs Short Video Based on S3EIR Model

[目的/意义]政务短视频作为传播政务信息的一种新方式,逐渐成为网民获取信息的重要渠道。与此同时,政务短视频评论区也成为网民发表言论的集散地,若不进行科学合理的引导极易引发舆情危机。探究短视频中网民情绪的感染路径,可为政府进行短视频舆论导控提供重要的理论支持,为营造安全健康的网络环境提供思路。[方法/过程]在传统SEIR模型的基础上,考虑网民的情绪倾向,将潜在网民情绪传播者分为积极情绪潜在传播者、消极情绪潜在传播者和中立情绪潜在传播者,基于此构建研究网民情绪感染路径的S3EIR模型,并利用Python爬取抖音南京毛老太隐瞒行程被刑拘事件的短视频评论进行数据处理和仿真试验,验证模型适用性并揭示网民情绪感染的具体路径。[结果/结论]政务短视频文案和评论区文案的情感倾向性会对网民情绪产生重要影响,进而改变传播路径。

[Purpose/significance] As a new way to disseminate government information,government short video has gradually become an important channel for Internet users to obtain information.At the same time,the comment area of short videos on government affairs has also become a distribution center for netizens to express their opinions.Without scientific and reasonable guidance,it is easy to cause public opinion crisis.Exploring the emotional infection path of netizens in short videos can provide important theoretical support for the government to conduct public opinion guidance and control of short videos,and provide ideas for building a safe and healthy network environment.[Method/process] Based on the traditional SEIR model and considering the emotional tendency of netizens,potential netizens’ emotional spreaders are divided into potential positive emotional spreaders,potential negative emotional spreaders and potential neutral emotional spreaders.Based on this,an S3 EIR model is constructed to study the emotional infection path of netizens.In addition,Python was used to crawl the short video comments of Douyin event “Nanjing granny was detained for concealing her itinerary” for data processing and simulation experiments,to verify the applicability of the model and reveal the emotional infection path of netizens.[Result/conclusion] The results show that the emotional orientation of government short video copywriting and comment section copywriting will have an important impact on netizens’ emotions,and then change the propagation path.