基于PLUS模型的山东省土地利用变化模拟分析

Simulation Analysis of Land Use Change in Shandong Province Based on PLUS Model

随着人口增长与经济发展,建设用地与绿地之间的矛盾凸显,探索土地利用变化规律对划定城市增长边界和制定土地利用政策具有重要意义。基于2010年和2020年山东省土地利用数据,通过PLUS模型“自下而上”与Markov模型“自上而下”方法耦合模拟2030年土地利用空间格局。研究发现,山东省2010—2020年土地利用转移量最大的是耕地转人造地表,占转移总量的7.45%;PLUS模型进行2020年发展模拟验证,Kappa=0.687,Fo M=0.198,说明规律挖掘和模拟结果显著性强、精准度高。Markov模型与PLUS模型耦合模拟预测,在2030年自由发展的情景下,耕地减少,城市呈“摊大饼”式发展,小面积的人造地表聚集扩大,人造地表间联系增强;在生态保护情景下,红线范围内绿地得到较好保护,生态敏感区/脆弱区与禁止开发区的人为干扰影响降低。总而言之,PLUS模型对山东省土地利用变化模拟的适用性较好,多情景模拟结果对山东省国土空间规划和生态安全保护提供决策参考。

With population growth and economic development,the contradiction between construction land and green space is prominent.Exploring the law of land use change is of great significance for delineating urban growth boundaries and formulating land use policies.Based on the land use data of Shandong Province in 2010 and 2020,the spatial pattern of land use in 2030 was simulated by coupling the“bottom-up”method of the PLUS model and the“top-down”method of the Markov model.The study found that the largest amount of land use transfer in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020 was the transfer of cultivated land to artificial surface,accounting for 7.45%of the total transfer;the PLUS model was simulated and verified for the development in 2020,Kappa=0.687,FoM=0.198,indicating that the regular mining and the simulation results are significant and accurate.The coupling simulation of the Markov model and the PLUS model predicts that in the free development scenario in2030,the arable land will decrease,the city will show a pie-style development,the aggregation of small-scale man-made surfaces will expand,and the connection between man-made surfaces will be strengthened;under the ecological protection scenario,within the red line the green space is better protected,and the impact of human disturbance in ecologically sensitive/fragile areas and prohibited development areas is reduced.All in all,the PLUS model has good applicability to the simulation of land use change in Shandong Province,and the multi-scenario simulation results provide decision-making reference for the land spatial planning and ecological security protection in Shandong Province.