甘肃旱作农业地区粮食综合生产能力影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity in Dry Farming Areas of Gansu

甘肃旱作农业地区在我省粮食生产中占据重要位置,已经成为甘肃省粮食作物的主产区,稳步提高旱作农业地区粮食综合生产能力是确保国家粮食安全和实现“藏粮于地”“藏粮于技”的重要任务。运用改进的灰色关联分析方法对2009—2019年甘肃旱作农业区粮食综合生产能力影响因素进行分析发现,粮食收购价格、降水量以及粮食播种面积是影响粮食综合生产能力的主要因素;化肥施用量以前是影响粮食生产能力的一个重要因素,近年来它的边际效益在不断递减;粮食受灾面积成灾率和农业机械总动力都对粮食综合生产能力有显著影响。为了提高和保护甘肃旱作农业区的粮食综合生产能力,应切实保护耕地和提高耕地质量、维护农业生态环境,提高旱作农业区水资源利用率、提高化肥使用效率、加大科技资金在农业领域的投入力度,保护和提高种粮农民的生产积极性。

Gansu dry farming areas in our province occupy an important position in food production,has become the main production area of Gansu Province food crops,steadily improve the comprehensive production capacity of food in dry farming areas is to ensure national food security and to achieve the“hide food in the land”“hide food in technology”.The important task is to ensure national food security and realize the“hiding grain in land”and“hiding grain in technology”.The analysis of the factors influencing the comprehensive grain production capacity in dry farming areas in Gansu from 2009 to 2019 using improved gray correlation analysis revealed that grain purchase price,precipitation and grain sown area were the main factors influencing the comprehensive grain production capacity;fertilizer application used to be an important factor influencing grain production capacity,but its marginal benefit has been decreasing in recent years;grain affected area the disaster rate and the total power of agricultural machinery have a significant impact on the comprehensive grain production capacity.In order to improve and protect the comprehensive grain production capacity of dry farming areas in Gansu,we should effectively protect arable land and improve the quality of arable land,maintain the agricultural ecological environment,improve the utilization rate of water resources in dry farming areas,improve the efficiency of fertilizer use,increase the investment of scientific and technological funds in the agricultural field,and protect and improve the production enthusiasm of grain farmers.