黄河流域9个省(区)虚拟水流动格局及趋势研究

Virtual Water Flow Pattern and Trend in the Nine Provinces of the Yellow River Basin

为助力解决制约黄河流域高质量发展面临的水资源问题,基于区域间投入产出表,通过构建多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,全面测算了2012年和2015年黄河流域9个省(区)贸易隐含虚拟水资源量,分析了其流动格局及变化趋势。研究结果表明:①2012年和2015年9个省(区)总体由虚拟水净流出状态转为净流入状态,上游区始终为虚拟水净流出区,下游区始终为虚拟水净流入区,中游区由净流入区转为净流出区,虚拟水流动格局与水资源量不协调;②虚拟水转移具有较大的行业相似性,但不同区域虚拟水贸易结构存在一定差异;③在9个省(区)内部虚拟水贸易中,陕西、山西和河南主要承担虚拟水产品消费者的角色,青海和宁夏主要承担供给者的角色;④9个省(区)的虚拟水主要流向我国东北和京津冀地区。根据研究结果,为促进黄河流域水资源优化配置,助力高质量协调发展提出针对性建议。

In order to help solve the water resources issues that restrict the high⁃quality development of the Yellow River Basin,based on the multi⁃regional input⁃output table of China,this paper calculated the virtual water of the nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2015 by building a multi⁃regional input⁃output(MRIO)model,and analyzed its flow pattern and trend.The results show that a)the Yellow River Basin changes from virtual net water outflow area to inflow area between 2012 and 2015.The upstream area is always the virtual water outflow area,the downstream area is always the virtual water inflow area,and the midstream area is transformed from the virtual water inflow area to outflow area.The flow pattern of virtual water is not coordinated with water resources.b)Virtual water flow sectors have great industry similarities.However,there are differences in the trade structure of virtual water in different regions.c)In the virtual water trade within the Yellow River Basin,Shaanxi,Shanxi and Henan are the main virtual water consumers,while Qinghai and Ningxia are the main virtual water suppliers.The virtual water flowing out of the Yellow River Basin mainly flows to the northeast and Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei region.Finally,the suggestions are proposed to promote the optimization and allocation of water resources and help the high⁃quality and coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin.