金融业增加值的国内外比较及对实体经济的支持研究

Research on the Comparison of the Added Value of the Financial Industry at Home and Abroad and Its Support for the Real Economy

金融业增加值占GDP比重反映了金融业发展与经济发展的动态关系,以及金融业在经济中的地位和作用。金融业的发展应与实体经济的发展维持在一种“相当”的关系上才是合理的。目前,我国金融业存在过度发展倾向,而且金融业的扩张速度随着宏观经济形势和政策环境的变化而变化,呈现周期性特征。与国外相比,我国金融业增加值占比增速过快、整体偏高、波动偏大;相比美国而言,我国金融业发展对实体经济的影响作用不显著,金融业的发展与实体经济出现了分离。对金融业增加值占比较高的12个地区分析发现,金融业增加值增速最快的地区,经济发展状况并不理想,反而远低于全国经济发展平均水平,金融业过度发展加大了金融业和整体经济的波动风险,损害了经济的进一步发展,导致贷款产出效率过快下降和经济“脱实向虚”。对此,要通过促进实体经济报酬占优、维护金融体系多样性、发展关系型融资和耐心资本等方式来稳定金融体系;大力发展科技金融和供应链金融,提升金融支持的精准度和直达性;优化金融监管,全方位规避“脱实向虚”。

The ratio of the added value of the financial industry to GDP reflects the dynamic relationship between the development of the financial industry and economic development, as well as the status and role of the financial industry in the economy. It is only reasonable that the development of the financial industry should maintain an "equivalent" relationship with the development of the real economy. At present, China’s financial industry has a tendency of excessive development, and the expansion speed of the financial industry changes with the changes in the macroeconomic situation and policy environment, showing a cyclical feature. Compared with foreign countries, the proportion of added value of China’s financial industry is growing too fast, the overall is high, and the fluctuation is large. Compared with the United States, the development of China’s financial industry does not have a significant impact on the real economy, and the development of the financial industry is separated from the real economy. An analysis of the 12 regions with the highest proportion of the added value of the financial industry finds that the regions with the fastest growth in the added value of the financial industry have an unsatisfactory economic development situation, which is far lower than the national average level of economic development. Excessive development of the financial industry increases the risk of fluctuations in the financial industry and the overall economy, damages the further development of the economy, leads to a rapid decline in the efficiency of loan output, and the economy "deviates from the real to the virtual". In this regard, we should stabilize the financial system by promoting the dominance of returns in the real economy, maintaining the diversity of the financial system, and developing relational financing and patient capital, vigorously develop technology finance and supply chain finance, improve the accuracy and directness of financial support, optimize financial supervision and avoid "deviation from the real to the virtual" in an all-round way.