税收分成与经济发展方式转变:机制分析和经验证据

Tax Sharing and the Transformation of Economic Development Mode:Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Evidence

推动经济发展方式集约型转变是实现中国经济“稳”可预期、“进”有动能的关键。本文基于中国市县级政府税收弹性分成的典型事实,从理论和经验层面考察了税收分成对经济发展方式转变的影响效果与作用机制。研究发现,市县级政府税收分成比例的提高有利于推动经济发展方式的集约型转变,这一结论在经过多重稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,税收分成比例的提高有利于提升新型基础设施建设水平、基本公共服务供给水平和营商环境质量,从而增进经济发展的集约型水平。异质性分析得出,对于经济发展水平较低、市辖区人口规模较高、同省内市县发展差距较大的样本,税收分成对经济发展方式转变的影响更为明显。本文的研究结论为深化省以下财政体制改革提供了有益的政策启示。

Promoting the intensive transformation of the mode of economic development is the key to realizing the stability and progress of China’s economy.Based on the typical facts of the tax elastic sharing of China’s municipal and county governments,this paper examines the effect and mechanism of tax sharing on the transformation of economic development mode from the theoretical and empirical levels.The study found that the increase of tax sharing ratio of municipal and county governments is conducive to the intensive transformation of economic development mode.This conclusion is still valid after multiple robustness tests.Mechanism analysis shows that the increase of tax sharing ratio is conducive to improving the construction level of new infrastructure,the supply level of basic public services and the quality of business environment,so as to enhance the intensive level of economic development.The heterogeneity analysis shows that for the samples with low economic development level,high population size in municipal districts and large development gap between cities and counties in the same province,the impact is more obvious.The conclusions of this paper provide useful policy implications for deepening the reform of the financial system below the provincial level.