黄河流域技术创新对PM_(2.5)的影响及其空间溢出效应

Impact of technological innovation on PM_(2.5)and its spatial spillover effect in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域是推进空气质量改善和经济社会高质量发展的核心区域,技术创新是破解流域PM_(2.5)污染防治难题的关键手段。该研究以2004—2019年黄河流域79个地级市PM_(2.5)污染数据为样本,利用核密度估计、空间自相关等方法探究PM_(2.5)在空间上的异质性和关联性特征,并将以技术创新为核心的社会经济因素和气温、降水等自然解释要素纳入同一空间面板杜宾模型,分析各因素对黄河流域PM_(2.5)的效应及其空间溢出效应,系统识别和甄别技术创新要素在这一过程中的贡献程度和溢出效应,解析技术创新对PM_(2.5)的作用机制与影响路径。研究发现:①黄河流域PM_(2.5)在空间上呈现显著的异质性和相关性,浓度值较高的地市主要集中于漯河、濮阳等黄河流域下游地区,全局Moran’s I指数均大于0.80且显著为正,空间关联以高高集聚和低低集聚类型为主;②专利授权量的增加通过排放源管控治理、移动源消减治理等路径对本地区PM_(2.5)防治具有正向推动作用,但由于绿色技术标准、绿色补贴等绿色技术壁垒的存在加剧了邻近地区污染治理难度,表现为负向空间溢出效应;③流域城市人均创新指数的提升通过营造良好的创新氛围、激发技术创新内生动力等机制同样促进了本地PM_(2.5)浓度下降,但空间溢出效应并不显著,未能对周边地区产生辐射带动作用。研究基于技术创新对PM_(2.5)防治的影响和空间溢出效应提出适应性对策建议,突出技术创新在空气污染防治中的关键作用,搭建和完善跨区域绿色技术创新体系,加强流域间联防联控机制与竞争合作机制,助推黄河流域空气质量改善、生态保护和高质量发展。

The Yellow River Basin is the core area for boosting air quality improvement and high-quality economic development,and technological innovation in this region plays a crucial role in preventing and controlling PM_(2.5) pollution.This article used the PM_(2.5) pollution data of 79 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2019 and explored the spatial heterogeneity and correlation characteristics of PM_(2.5) through kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation,etc.Meanwhile,this study considered both socioeconomic factors and natural factors such as temperature and precipitation in the spatial Durbin model and took technological innovation as the core explanatory factor to analyze the impact of various factors on PM_(2.5)and its spatial spillover.The influence contribution and spillover effects of technological innovation factors were identified in this process,thereby interpreting the impact mechanism and channels of technological innovation on PM_(2.5).The research found that:①The PM_(2.5)in the Yellow River Basin had significant spatial heterogeneity and correlation.Cities with higher concentrations were mainly clustered in the lower reaches of the basin,such as Luohe and Puyang.The global Moran’s I was greater than 0.80 with a significantly positive coefficient.In the Yellow River Basin,most of the spatial correlation types were high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration.②The increase of patent authorization had a positive effect on the prevention and control of PM_(2.5)through the governance of emission source control and mobile source reduction.However,due to the existence of green technical barriers such as green technical standards and green subsidies,the difficulty of pollution control in nearby locations was exacerbated,which manifested as a negative spatial spillover effect.③The improvement of the per capita innovation index of cities also promoted the reduction of local PM_(2.5)concentration by creating a good innovation atmosphere and stimulating the endogenous power of technological innovation.But the spatial spillover effect was not significant,which failed to play a catalytic and leading role in nearby locations.This study,based on the impact of technological innovation on PM_(2.5)prevention and control and its spatial spillover effects,puts forward some relative countermeasures and suggestions.We should highlight the key role of technological innovation in the prevention and control of air pollution and build and improve a cross-regional green technology innovation system.Moreover,the joint prevention and control mechanism and competitive cooperation mechanism should be strengthened between river basins to promote air quality improvement,ecological protection,and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.