后疫情时代山东省区域经济协调发展实证研究

Empirical Study on the Coordinated Development of Regional Economy in Shandong Province in the Post-pandemic Era

区域经济协调发展是国民经济高质量发展的前提,是转变经济发展方式、优化经济结构和转换增长动力的重要推手。从区域经济程度、发展公平程度以及发展速度三个方面构建山东省区域经济协调发展的评价指标体系,结合2011—2020年经济发展数据进行动态分析。结果显示,山东省的市场一体化程度趋于稳定,基本上已经形成了统一的内部市场;泰尔系数反映出区域总体差异呈现出波动状态,有递减的趋势;区域经济发展速度整体呈现平稳上升的态势。总的来说,这十年山东省区域协调发展程度整体在不断提高。为分析新冠疫情的影响,构建了山东省经济发展综合评价指标体系,并采用基于熵值法的VIKOR综合评价模型进行实证研究。结果表明2020年16地市的经济发展水平分为五个层次,并探讨其原因。最后,建议对区域经济进行统筹规划促进区域间的优势互补以及产业结构的优化改革,同时积极探讨和谋划“一群两心三圈”的区域发展格局,多举措做好疫情防控和经济发展的统筹工作。

Coordinated development of regional economy is the premise of high-quality development of national economy,and an important driving force for the transformation of economic development mode,optimization of economic structure,and transformation of growth momentum.This paper constructs an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of regional economy in Shandong Province from three aspects:the degree of regional economy,the degree of development equity and the speed of development,and makes a dynamic analysis based on the economic development data from 2011 to 2020.The results show that the degree of market integration in Shandong Province tends to be stable,and a unified internal market has basically been formed;Theil coefficient reflects that the regional overall difference presents a fluctuating state with a decreasing trend;the overall speed of regional economic development shows a steady upward trend.In general,the overall level of coordinated regional development in Shandong Province has been improving in the past decade.In order to analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic,the comprehensive evaluation index system of economic development in Shandong Province was constructed,and the VIKOR comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy method was used for empirical research.The results show that the economic development level of 16 cities in 2020 is divided into five levels,and the reasons are discussed.Finally,it is suggested that the regional economy should be planned as a whole to promote the complementary advantages among regions and the optimization and reform of the industrial structure.At the same time,the regional development pattern of“a group,two centers,three circles”should be actively explored and planned,and the overall work of epidemic prevention and control and economic development should be done well with multiple measures.