人口老龄化、城镇化与基本公共服务支出结构——基于省级面板数据实证分析

The Population Aging,Urbanization and the Government Expenditure Structure of Basic Public Services ——A Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于政府基本公共服务支出行为视角,该文以2010—2019年31个省(直辖市、自治区)的数据为样本,采用面板计量模型研究人口老龄化对政府基本公共服务支出结构的影响效果及影响机制,面板回归模型分析结果表明:总体上人口老龄化对政府基本公共服务支出结构的影响呈“倒U型”关系,在人口老龄化初期政府会先偏向医疗卫生支出,在人口老龄化经过拐点后政府会偏向教育支出,目前中国除老龄化进程比较早的上海市以外其他地区均处于“倒U型”左侧.影响机制的结果显示城镇化水平在人口老龄化影响政府基本公共服务支出结构中起中介效应.

From the perspective of government expenditure behavior of basic public services,the data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019 is taken as samples,and the panel econometric model is used to study the effect and mechanism of population aging on government expenditure structure of basic public services.The analysis results of panel regression model show that overall population aging basic public services to the government expenditure structure in the influence of "inverted U" relationship,at the beginning of the aging population,the government will be to medical and health spending,in an ageing population after turning point,the government will be biased towards education spending,at present other provinces except Shanghai that have an earlier aging process in China are in the left side of the "inverted U".The results of influencing mechanism show that the level of urbanization plays a mediating role in the impact of population aging on the expenditure structure of government basic public services.