基于分数阶灰色模型的中国天然气消费量预测

Prediction of natural gas consumption in China based on fractional grey model

我国在“十四五”规划中提到,“碳排放达峰后稳中有降,生态环境根本好转,美丽中国建设目标基本实现”.传统的化石能源焚烧时会造成大量碳排放,引起酸雨,破坏生态平衡,形成的大量温室气体也是导致世界气候变暖的主要因素.而天然气作为中国清洁燃料的主要代表,是我国能源结构转型的关键,对提升其在我国能源结构中的占比至关重要.合理准确地预测中国天然气消费量对于国家能源资源配置、优化产业结构具有重大意义.以中国2014—2020年天然气消费量数据分别建立GM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)和FGM(1,1)三种灰色模型并利用平均绝对百分比误差比较模型的性能.结果表明FGM(1,1)模型的模拟精度最高,可以用该模型对未来中国天然气消费量进行预测.最后运用FGM(1,1)模型预测了2021—2023年中国天然气消费量,为制定能源消费相关政策提供了有力的科研依据.

China’s"14th Five-Year Plan"mentioned that"carbon emissions have stabilized and declined after peaking,the ecological environment has fundamentally improved,and the goal of building a beautiful China has basically been achieved."The burning of traditional fossil energy will cause a lot of carbon emissions,cause acid rain,destroy the ecological balance,and form a large number of greenhouse gases,which is also the main factor leading to global warming.As the main representative of China’s clean fuel,natural gas is the key to the transformation of China’s energy structure,which is very important to improve its proportion in China’s energy structure.Reasonable and accurate prediction of China’s natural gas consumption is of great significance for the allocation of national energy resources and the optimization of industrial structure.Based on China’s natural gas consumption data from 2014 to 2020,this paper establishes three grey models of GM(1,1),DGM(1,1)and FGM(1,1)respectively,and uses the average absolute percentage error to compare the performance of the model.The results show that the simulation accuracy of the FGM(1,1)model is the highest,and the model can be used to predict China’s natural gas consumption in the future.Finally,the FGM(1,1)model is used to predict China’s natural gas consumption from 2021 to 2023,which provides a strong scientific research basis for formulating energy consumption related policies.