成渝地区双城经济圈县域经济时空格局分析

Temporal and Spatial Pattern of County Economy in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

本文选取成渝地区双城经济圈142个县域作为研究样本,基于2001—2019年人均GDP面板数据,利用标准差、变异系数、NICH指数和探索性时空分析(ESDA)分析方法,从时间和空间两个维度深入刻画和研究了成渝地区双城经济圈县域经济空间格局动态演化过程。结果表明,2001—2019年,成渝地区双城经济圈县域经济发展不均衡性的绝对差异不断扩大,相对差异持续缩小;县域经济发展水平和经济增长的分布格局较为一致,但“马太效应”十分显著,绝大多数县域经济增长速度偏慢;2001—2019年的19年间,人均GDP的Moran's I指数均为正值,县域经济呈现明显空间集聚现象,且伴有不断强化趋势;县域经济空间异质性突出,成渝“双核”极化现象明显,不发达地区集中连片分布,“中部孱弱”现象突出。最后,为优化成渝地区双城经济圈县域经济空间格局,本文提出建立健全区域协同规划建设及分享机制、构建“双核”引领的县域经济协调发展格局等政策建议。

This paper selects 142 counties in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle as the research sample.Based on the panel data of per capita GDP from 2001 to 2019,and using the standard deviation,coefficient of variation,NICH index and exploratory spatiotemporal analysis(ESDA)methods,it deeply describes and studies the dynamic evolution process of the county economic spatial pattern of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle from time and space dimensions.The results show that from 2001 to 2019,the absolute difference in the unbalanced economic development of the counties in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle continued to expand,while the relative difference continued to shrink;the level of county economic development and the distribution pattern of economic growth were relatively consistent,but the Matthew effect is quite obvious,and the economic growth rate of most counties was relatively slow;during the 19 years,the Moran's I index of per capita GDP was positive,and the county economy showed obvious spatial agglomeration,accompanied by a continuous strengthening trend;economic spatial heterogeneity is prominent,Chengdu-Chongqing"dual core"polarization is obvious,underdeveloped areas are concentrated and contiguous,and the phenomenon of"weakness in the middle"is prominent.Finally,in order to optimize the county economic spatial pattern of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,this paper puts forward policy suggestions such as establishing and improving the regional collaborative planning,construction and sharing mechanism,accelerating the construction of a coordinated county-level economic development pattern led by"dual core".