纵向财政失衡对生态福利绩效的影响机制研究

Mechanism of the Impact of Vertical Fiscal Imbalance on Ecological Well-being Performance

提高生态福利绩效能够体现生态文明建设、绿色高质量发展和人与自然和谐共生的要义。但在地方政府存在纵向财政失衡的情况下,有必要探究纵向财政失衡对生态福利绩效的影响及机制。本文应用中国地级市统计数据采用工具变量法分析纵向财政失衡对生态福利绩效的影响。结果表明,纵向财政失衡对生态福利绩效具有显著的正向影响,一系列稳健性检验后该结论仍然成立,但利用分位数回归进行边际分析的结果显示,纵向财政失衡程度过低或过高均无法有效起到积极作用,甚至会对生态福利绩效产生微弱的抑制效果。此外,纵向财政失衡对生态福利绩效的影响具有显著的异质性,在地区层面,东部地区较中、西部地区而言,对生态福利绩效具有显著的正向影响;在城市级别层面,省会和直辖市对生态福利绩效的影响程度高于一般地级市;从失衡程度分析,失衡程度相对较低的城市其纵向财政失衡对生态福利绩效的正向影响更为显著。进一步的机制分析表明纵向财政失衡能够通过地方政府的国土开发行为和产业发展行为间接影响生态福利绩效。

Improving ecological well-being performance can reflect the essence of ecological civilization construction,high-quality green development and harmonious coexistence between man and nature.But it is necessary to explore the mechanism of the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance on ecological well-being performance in the situation where local governments face vertical fiscal imbalance.Based on the statistical data from some cities in China,we use instrumental variable method to analyze the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance on ecological well-being performance.Results show that vertical fiscal imbalance has a significant positive impact on ecological well-being performance,and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests.However,marginal analysis based on quantile regression shows that the degree of vertical fiscal imbalance,when it is low or too high,cannot play a positive role,and even has a weak restraining effect on the ecological well-being performance.In addition,the vertical fiscal imbalance has significant heterogeneity effect on the ecological well-being performance.At the regional level,compared with the central and western regions,the vertical fiscal imbalance has a significant positive influence in the eastern region;in terms of the level of the city concerned,the effect on the provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the central government is higher than the cities under the provincial government;in terms of the degree of vertical fiscal imbalance,it shows greater significant positive impact on ecological well-being performance in the cities with lower degree of fiscal imbalance.Further mechanism analysis shows that vertical fiscal imbalance can indirectly affect ecological well-being performance through local government s land development behavior and industrial development behavior.