基于AIS数据的民船行为预测与区域告警方法研究

Civil Ship Behavior Prediction and Regional Warning Method Based on AIS Data

针对靶场海域情报保障和指挥需求,利用历史采集的船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据,提出了基于AIS的民船行为预测与区域告警方法。将海区船舶AIS轨迹数据分段划分,采用DBScan聚类分析法对民船的AIS历史数据进行分析,得出航迹点归属等级,根据民船与划定禁区的距离、朝向、航速,并结合航迹点归属等级,制定了一系列评价准则和计算模型,最终得到民船的当前行为异常值,为禁区警戒指挥提供决策支持。

According to the requirements of information support and command in the sea area of the shooting range, a prediction and regional warning method of civil ship behavior based on AIS is proposed by using the data of automatic ship identification system(AIS) collected in history. Density clustering(DBScan) analysis method is used to analyze the historical AIS data of civil ship, and the classification grade of track points is obtained. Secondly, the historical credit record of the civilian ship is integrated to get the historical credit grade. Finally, according to the distance, orientation and speed between the civil vessels and the test navigation area, and in combination with the classification level of track points and historical credit level, a series of evaluation criteria and calculation models are formulated to obtain the threat level of the civil vessels to the test navigation area and provide decision support for the warning of the navigation area.