中国沿海地区海洋经济韧性时空分异及影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of marine economic resilience in China’s coastal provinces and regions

以中国沿海11省市(区)为研究对象,采用突变级数法对海洋经济韧性进行测度并分析其时空演化特点,运用线性回归模型探究海洋经济韧性的影响因素.得到以下结论:①整体来看,中国沿海省市(区)海洋经济韧性呈现不断提升的趋势,但增幅较小;分维度来看,海洋经济韧性恢复力最高,重构力次之,抵御力较低,三者在研究期内虽略有波动,但基本维持在稳定水平;②中国沿海省市(区)海洋经济韧性的区域差异在逐渐缩小,2008年上海与河北海洋经济韧性优势明显,但2012年、2017年各省份海洋经济韧性持续提升,区域差异不断缩小;③产业结构、技术创新和制度因素对海洋经济韧性有显著正向影响,文化因素对海洋经济韧性有正向影响,但未通过显著性检验.

Taking 11 provinces and regions along the coast of China as the research object, we use the abrupt progression method to measure the resilience of the marine economy, analyze its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, and then explore the influencing factors of the resilience of the marine economy by a metrology model. The results are as follows: ①the resilience of the marine economy in China’s coastal provinces and regions showed a trend of continuous improvement, but the increase was small, in terms of dimensions, the recovery level of the marine economy is the highest, followed by the level of reconstruction force, while the level of resistance is low, and the three aspects basically maintained at a stable level;②the regional differences in the resilience of the marine economy in China’s coastal provinces and regions were gradually narrowing, and in 2008, Shanghai and Hebei showed greater resilience, in 2012 and 2017, the resilience of the marine economy in all provinces has been continuously improved, and regional gap has been narrowing;③industrial structure, technological innovation and institutional factors have a significant positive impact on the resilience of the marine economy, and according to the regression coefficient, cultural factors also have a positive impact on the resilience of the marine economy, but the influence is not significant.