走向精准:突发事件风险分析方法发展综述

Rise of precision:a review of emergency risk analysis methodology

为提升突发事件风险分析的时效性和精准度,通过系统的文献调查,梳理突发事件风险分析方法的发展脉络,阐述支撑量化和精准风险分析的技术、方法、模型和理论的研究现状,探讨现有风险分析技术手段在量化复杂突发事件和巨灾时面临的困难。结果表明:未来突发事件风险分析技术、方法和理论的发展趋势包括:利用多种感知监测、大数据和计算技术等信息技术,发展优化各类定性、半定量和定量化模型方法;发展数据+模型+计算的突发事件风险计算方法;发展精准风险计算能力。

In order to improve the timeliness and accuracy of emergency risk analysis,this paper reviewed the development of emergency risk analysis methods through systematic literature insights.The development of emergency risk analysis methods,the research status of technologies,methods,models,and theories supporting quantitative and precise risk analysis,and the difficulties in quantifying complex emergencies and catastrophes were discussed.The results show that the future development trends of emergency risk analysis methods and theories include:studying and proposing methods to optimize qualitative,semi-quantitative,and quantitative models by using information technology such as big data of sensing monitoring and computing,developing emergency risk calculation methods based on data&model&calculation,and developing the ability of accurate risk calculation.