基于Pearson相关系数分析唐山台断层CO_(2)浓度与地温相关性及其与地震的关系

ANALYSIS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN CO_(2) CONCENTRATION AND GROUND TEMPERATURE OF FAULTS CROSSING TANGSHAN SEISMOSTATION AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH EARTHQUAKES BASED ON PEARSON CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

为深入研究断层气CO_(2)与地温、降雨、地震的关系,基于40日滑动时间窗,利用皮尔逊相关系数(Pearson Correlation Coefficient)对唐山地震台断层土壤气CO_(2)浓度、地温数据进行相关性分析,并结合降雨量探讨相关系数变化与台站邻近区域M≥3.0地震的映震关系,分析概括出唐山地震台断层(CO_(2)浓度-地温)相关系数变化特征与地震的关系。结果表明:地震发生当日,唐山地震台断层上盘(CO_(2)浓度-地温)相关系数变化特征中持续减小特征为43.8%,阶段性低值特征占18.8%,持续增大与阶段性高值特征共计37.5%;地震发生当日,唐山地震台断层下盘(CO_(2)浓度-地温)相关系数变化特征中持续减小特征为13.6%,阶段性低值特征占40.9%,持续增大与阶段性高值特征共计45.4%。该分析思路可为唐山区域断层活动现状分析提供参考,为首都圈地区震情跟踪、分析与研判提供依据。

In order to make deep analysis on relationship of the fault gas CO_(2),ground temperature,rainfall,and earthquakes,this paper used Pearson Correlation Coefficient to calculate correlation coefficients between CO_(2) concentration and ground temperature of faults crossing Tangshan seismic station based on a 40-day sliding time window,and relationships between changes in correlation coefficients and earthquakes larger than magnitude 3.0 near the seismic station were also discussed with rainfall,through which the relevance of changing characteristics in(CO_(2) concentration-ground temperature)correlation coefficients of faults at this seismic station and these earthquakes were finally analyzed and generalized from the perspective of statistics.The results show that on day of all statistical earthquakes,in variation characteristics of the correlation coefficient of the hanging wall of faults(CO_(2) concentration-ground temperature)at Tangshan seismic station,the continuous decrease characteristic is 43.8%,the phased low value characteristic accounts for 18.8%,and the continuous increase and phased high value characteristics account for 37.5%;On the day of the earthquake,the variation characteristics of the correlation coefficient of the footwall of faults(CO_(2) concentration-ground temperature)at Tangshan seismic station continued to decrease by 13.6%,the characteristics of phased low value accounted for 40.9%,and the characteristics of continuous increase and phased high value totaled 45.4%.This idea can provide a reference for the current situation of Tangshan fault activity,and present a basis for tracking,analysis of earthquake situation in Chinese capital region.