我国房地产市场分化与区域经济增长

Differentiation of Chinese Real Estate Market and Regional Economic Growth

2003年以来,我国房地产市场快速发展,我国房地产市场也呈现出明显的分化。本研究运用基尼系数和泰尔指数,对主要城市群间的房地产市场发展差异水平进行了测度,并分析了区域间人均土地出让金、住房价格、人均房地产投资额的分化程度。结合经验事实对比分析,进一步探析房地产市场区域分化对区域经济发展的影响。研究发现,不同区域内部的人均土地出让金及住房价格存在分化特征,这与区域经济的发展分化有一定的相关性,适度的房地产市场分化对经济增长会产生一定的推动作用。京津冀城市群房价水平的不平等程度与其他两个城市群没有显著差异,但内部经济发展差异最大。以京津冀城市群为例,房价分化程度如果与经济发展差异水平不匹配,则会影响人口流动,对区域经济发展产生阻碍作用。因此,应关注房地产市场的供求平衡,优化房地产供给,避免过高的房价导致劳动力流失而损害经济的长期健康发展。

Since 2003,China’s real estate market has developed rapidly.China’s real estate market has also shown obvious differentiation.The Gini coefficient and Theil index were used to measure the level of difference in real estate market development among major urban agglomerations and analyze the differentiation degree of per capita land transfer fees,housing prices,and per capita real estate investment.Combining the comparative analysis of empirical facts,the influence of the regional differentiation of the real estate market on regional economic development was explored.It was found that the per capita land transfer fees and housing prices in different regions were differentiated,which was related to the differentiation of regional economic development.Moderate differentiation of real estate market would promote economic growth.The inequality of housing prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was not significantly different from the other two urban agglomerations,but the difference in internal economic development was the largest.Taking Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration as an example,if the degree of house price differentiation does not match the level of economic development difference,population flow would be affected,thus regional economic development would be hindered.Therefore,attention should be paid to the supply-demand balance of the real estate market,optimization of the real estate supply,and avoiding the damage to the long-term healthy development of the economy due to the loss of labor force caused by high house prices.