人口老龄化、教育人力资本与经济增长

Population Aging,Educational Human Capital and Economic Growth

以1990—2018年163个国家或地区为样本,分析了人口老龄化对教育人力资本经济增长效应的调节作用。研究发现:首先,教育人力资本对于所有地区的经济增长都具有显著的正向影响,且收入等级越低,教育人力资本对经济增长的贡献越大。对于低收入地区以外的其他地区,人口老龄化对其经济增长具有显著的促进作用。其次,通过加入人口老龄化与教育人力资本交互项发现,人口老龄化对教育人力资本的经济促进作用有显著的调节效应。随着人口老龄化的加重,教育人力资本对经济增长的促进作用减弱,其主要原因在于,人口老龄化会削弱教育人力资本对产业结构升级、收入平等、城镇化水平等方面的促进作用,从而降低教育人力资本对经济增长的促进作用。因此,应对人口老龄化对教育人力资本的负向调节作用,是各国实现经济持续稳定增长的必要任务。

Taking 163 countries or regions as samples from 1990 to 2018,this paper analyzes the moderating effect of aging on the economic growth effect of educational human capital.The research found that:First of all,educational human capital has a significant positive impact on economic growth in all regions,and the lower the income level,the greater the contribution of educational human capital to economic growth.For areas other than low-income areas,aging has a significant role in promoting economic growth.Secondly,by adding the interaction term of aging and educational human capital,it is found that aging has a significant moderating effect on the economic promotion of educational human capital.For all regions,with the increase of aging,the role of educational human capital in promoting economic growth has weakened.The main reason is that aging will weaken the role of educational human capital in promoting industrial structure upgrading,income equality,and the level of urbanization,thereby reducing the role of educational human capital in promoting economic growth.Therefore,coping with the negative moderating effect of aging on education human capital is a necessary task for countries to achieve sustained and stable economic growth.