中国城乡协调水平与经济高质量发展耦合协调度研究

Coupling Coordination Degree between China Urban-rural Coordination Level and High-quality Economic Development

城乡协调作为新时代的奋斗目标,正广泛而深刻地影响经济高质量发展。基于2008—2019年我国30个省份面板数据,选用耦合协调度模型、PVAR模型、Granger因果关系检验等方法实证分析城乡协调与经济高质量发展之间的耦合关系。结果显示:各省份的耦合协调度都存在明显的改善,且大部分省份正朝着高水平磨合阶段前进;耦合协调度在空间上呈现东中西依次递减的态势;城乡协调有助于经济高质量发展,经济高质量发展又反向支撑城乡协调水平。针对目前发展状况及实证结果,提出强化地方领导的农村贫困治理能力和统筹城乡发展的能力,加大农村地区政策支持力度和人力资本培育力度,因地制宜,加强中西部地区核心城市建设的政策建议。

As a goal of the new era,urban-rural coordination is influencing the high-quality economic development widely and profoundly.Based on 30 provincial panel data in China from 2008 to 2019,the coupling relationship between urban-rural coordination and high-quality economic development is empirically analyzed by adopting coupling coordination degree model,PVAR model and Granger causality test.The results show that the coupling coordination degree of each province has improved significantly,and most provinces are moving towards a high-level running-in stage;the coupling coordination degree shows a decreasing trend from east,middle to west in space;and that urban-rural coordination contributes to high-quality economic development which reversely supports urban-rural coordination level.In view of the current development situation and the empirical results,such policy suggestions are put forward as strengthening the ability of local leadership to tackle rural poverty and coordinate urban and rural development as a whole,strengthening policy support and human capital cultivation in rural areas,and strengthening the construction of core cities in the central and western regions according to the local conditions.